In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober meet at UFC 259 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and then the main card on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. Below, we analyze the UFC 259 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
UFC 259 Makhachev vs. Dober: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Makhachev -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Dober +333 (bet $100 to win $333)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -155 | Under +130)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +115)
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UFC 259 Makhachev vs. Dober: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Makhachev 18-1 | Dober 23-9
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Makhachev (-450) has picked up unanimous-decision wins in his previous two outings, including a win over Davi Ramos at UFC 242 Sept. 7, 2019. He was to return in Nov. 2020 but was forced to pull out of the main event on that fight night card due to a staph infection. Between the rust of a long layoff, and the fact he has gone the distance in four of his past six events, he is a risky play.
DOBER (+333) has three straight KO/TKO wins, although none have been against the quality of opponent like Makhachev. Still, playing DOBER BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+500) is too tempting to pass at. He is super aggressive, and will try to fire out of the chute and end Makhachev’s night early while the favorite tries to get his sea legs. If Dober doesn’t get the early finish, this bet gets less attractive as the clock continues to tick. Still, it’s worth a roll of the dice.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite that will cost you four-and-a-half times your potential return, which just isn’t a good bet over the long haul. Plus, he is fighting an aggressive fighter in Dober, who is the much better value bet on the 2-way line.
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Over/Under (O/U)
As mentioned above, Makhachev has had four of his past six fights decided by the judges. However, the southpaw Dober has had four consecutive stoppages, including three straight KO/TKO wins since his submission loss to Beneil Dariush March 9, 2019. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+130) is worth playing, or YES (-140) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ gives you 90 more seconds of wiggle room.
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MMA Junkie:
- Drew Dober hopes Islam Makhachev fight at UFC 259 sets up main event vs. Rafael dos Anjos
- UFC 259 play-by-play and live results (5:15 p.m. ET)
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