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The UCF Knights (1-0) and the Boise State Broncos (0-1) meet Saturday at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UCF vs. Boise State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Knights weren’t very chivalrous against the Golden Flashes, as UCF belted Kent State at the Bounce House last weekend by a 56-6 margin, opening its Big 12 era in grand style. UCF managed 32 1st downs to just 15 for Kent State, while piling up a ridiculous 723 total yards of offense to just 239 for the Golden Flashes. If not for a minus-2 turnover ratio, the rout might’ve been worse.
Speaking of routs, Boise State was embarrassed 56-19 at Washington to open the season. The 56 points allowed were the most allowed by the Broncos since 2007 vs. Nevada, and the 37-point setback was the worst for Boise State since falling 63-23 to Louisiana Tech back in 1998.
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UCF at Boise State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:03 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UCF -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Boise State +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCF -3.5 (-110) | Boise State +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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UCF at Boise State picks and predictions
Prediction
UCF 36, Boise State 28
Moneyline
UCF (-165) has joined the big time in a Power 5 conference, and it wants to prove it belongs. Going on the road and beating Boise State (+140) on the Smurf Turf would be another feather in its cap.
The Knights looked sharp last week against an overmatched opponent, while the Broncos knuckled under on the road against a good opponent. Look for both teams to return more to the mean, with UCF not routing anyone, and Boise State not being nearly as pathetic. Still, the secondary was a huge concern for the Broncos coming into the season, and that proved to be a huge difference last week. Look for the Knights to exploit that weakness even more.
Against the spread
UCF -3.5 (-110) is a good play on the road. While the jury is still out on the Knights, as we didn’t learn a lot playing against a portal-gutted Kent State team last week, it did what it had to do, and did it well.
Boise State +3.5 (-110) looked awful, and far from a conference favorite. If the secondary cannot be markedly better, it could be staring another long evening in the grill. Boise State was also minus-2 in turnover ratio, an area it needs to turn around in a hurry.
Over/Under
OVER 60.5 (-105) is a strong play, as the scoreboard will be lighting up frequently.
UCF rolled up some gaudy offensive numbers last week, and it should find very little resistance on the back end from Boise State. And the Broncos had some bright spots on offense last week, even if the game was rather lopsided. Boise State still had 402 total yards of offense, and 138 rushing yards to just 78 for UW. The Broncos will be able to put up points against the Knights.
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