If you’re a USC fan, you would obviously like your chances if certain things happen on Saturday night against Notre Dame. You would love it if USC scored 40 points. You would love it if Notre Dame scored only 20. You would love it if USC limits Notre Dame to 35 percent third-down conversions. You would love it if Notre Dame scores no more than one red-zone touchdown.
What about the Irish’s perspective? What are Notre Dame experts thinking about this game in terms of numbers and scenarios?
We posed this pair of scenarios to Fighting Irish Wire editor Nick Shepkowski and asked him to choose the one he thinks would give Notre Dame a better chance of winning:
The better scenario for the Irish: 21 points with 38 minutes possession, or 28 points with 30 minutes possession?
“28 points with 30 minutes possession,” Shepkowski answered. “Notre Dame’s defense has been good against not allowing the huge play for touchdowns this year except for once against Ohio State and once last week against Louisville. USC will score points — that part is clear. 21 won’t be enough for Notre Dame to win regardless of TOP.”
Our view:
So, are seven more points worth eight fewer minutes of possession? We don’t think so. Eight more minutes of Caleb Williams watching this game as a bystander is a big chunk of time for Notre Dame. That’s worth a seven-point tradeoff. 21 and 38 would be better than 28 and 30.
We will see how everything unfolds.
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