The Toronto Blue Jays (62-52) and Seattle Mariners (61-55) open a three-game series Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Robbie Ray is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 in 130 1/3 IP over 22 starts.
- Has logged a 1.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP since the beginning of July.
- Seattle gets a higher than average percentage of its plate appearances vs. left-handers from left-handed batters. That plays into a Ray strength as he has a career .642 OPS allowed vs. LHBs.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starter for the Mariners. He is 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 120 1/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Has a wide gulf in his home/road splits favoring games at T-Mobile (2.67 ERA at home, 5.44 ERA on the road).
- Has benefited from a .241 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations.
Blue Jays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Mariners 3
Money line (ML)
Toronto is 12-4 over its last 16 games and arrives in the Emerald City after splitting four games with the Los Angeles Angels.
Seattle is coming off a 2-1 series win over Texas and has won three of its last four, but the Mariners are just 6-9 over their last 15 and are definitely tabbed as a “too far over their skis” group worthy of fading on many nights.
Friday is one of those nights, but the price on the Jays isn’t great: STEER CLEAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Ray has the support peripherals to back up his surface stats, at least to a greater degree than his Friday mound foe. Flexen averages 90 pitches per start but has thrown 211 over his last two efforts and is ripe for a late-season fatigue slump.
On a night with a bit of an Over lean, BACK THE BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-105).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both Ray and Flexen have expected-ERA figures higher than their surface figures. Seattle’s bullpen has surged this month with a 2.81 ERA, but that performance has been aided by a .232 BABIP.
Both bullpens are still borderline top-third units though, and T-Mobile most certainly profiles as a pitcher’s park. Still, the Blue Jays’ big-inning potential and just a little giveback from the pitchers are rewarded by a nice price here.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-112).
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