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The Cleveland Guardians (46-26) welcome the Toronto Blue Jays (35-39) to Progressive Field Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Blue Jays lead 2-1
The Blue Jays and Guardians recently played their only other series of the year June 14-16. Toronto lost 3-1 to start the series then won 5-0 and closed it out with a 7-6 win. It is coming off a series in which it was swept by the Boston Red Sox, losing 7-3 twice and 4-3 as well. The Blue Jays are just 3-6 over their last 9. They are 17-20 this season on the road.
The Guardians have been among the best home teams in the majors, having won 23 of 32 at Progressive Field. They beat the Seattle Mariners in 2 of 3 games prior to this series but are still just 2-3 over their last 5. Cleveland is 18-14 against the spread (ATS) at home.
Blue Jays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Yariel Rodriguez vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Rodriguez (0-1, 4.11 ERA) makes his 5th start. The rookie has a 1.76 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 6-5 home win over Kansas City Royals April 29
- 2024 road stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 2 starts
- Has never faced Guardians before
Carrasco (2-6, 5.80 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 59 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-0 road loss to Blue Jays Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-3, 5.95 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 6 HR, 4.9 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 4-2, 5.06 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Blue Jays at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +104 (bet $100 to win $104) | Guardians -122 (bet $122 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-188)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Blue Jays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Blue Jays 3
Moneyline
BET GUARDIANS (-122).
The Guardians have been strong at home and won 5 of their last 8 games at Progressive Field. Cleveland is 6-4 in its last 10 overall and 28-17 following a win.
Toronto has been the 3rd-worst team in MLB as an underdog at just 8-20 straight up. Considering those trends, back GUARDIANS (-122).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no value here either way. As run-line favorites, the Blue Jays are far too risky, while the Guardians are far too expensive as run-line underdogs. Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (-115).
The Guardians are 1-3 O/U in Carrasco’s last 4 starts. They’re 5-7 O/U in their last 12 overall, scoring 5 or fewer runs in 7 games over that span.
The Blue Jays are 32-40-2 O/U on the season. They’ve gone 3-5-1 O/U in their last 9 games and scored 4 or fewer runs 7 times during that stretch. With that in mind, back UNDER 9 (-115).
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