For the first time all season, every single Dallas Cowboys target had a positive cumulative EPA. What is EPA? It stands for Expected Points Added and it’s a really simple concept to grasp. Based on down, distance and field position, every situation has an impact on the likelihood a team scores, or Expected Points. The impact a single play has on the Expected Points for that drive, positive or negative, are called Expected Points Added.
Obviously explosive plays have a big impact on EPA. Passes of over 20 yards or runs longer than 10 yards qualify as explosive and, as named by former Ravens head coach Brian Billick, are considered toxic to the opponent. Several years ago I added turnovers to the definition and as witnessed in Dallas’ 49-29 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday, they have huge momentum in winning and losing.
The influence of a play on a team’s chances of winning take into account the score of a game and the time on the clock. That’s measured in win probability and like expected points, can be measured on a play-by-play basis in Win Probability Added.
Toxicity will normally have large EPA and WPA numbers, but they are not the only way to measure. With Impact Score, we take into account the impact of a big play on the team’s improved chances of winning the game, adding a clutch factor if you will. Here’s a look at the top Cowboys plays from Sunday’s win.