Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not only do they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, but they do so with greater consistency. The position is always gives up most of the first round in any fantasy draft. Likely the second as well.

Below are the running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Running Backs	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Jonathan Taylor	1	6	0	0	0
Austin Ekeler	2	25	4	27	43
Najee Harris	3	0	0	0	0
Joe Mixon	4	43	13	9	32
James Conner	5	26	34	6	102
Leonard Fournette	6	34	7	38	8
Ezekiel Elliott	7	9	3	5	9
Antonio Gibson	8	13	0	0	0
Alvin Kamara	9	1	9	4	4
Aaron Jones	10	5	2	23	51
Dalvin Cook	16	2	6	31	65
Derrick Henry	23	3	5	13	26
David Montgomery	19	4	23	0	0
James Robinson	24	7	0	0	0
Josh Jacobs	12	8	20	0	0
Nick Chubb	13	11	8	15	0
Christian McCaffrey	39	53	1	3	16
Saquon Barkley	30	119	10	2	0
Todd Gurley II	0	28	14	1	1
Melvin Gordon III	18	12	21	7	5
Kareem Hunt	50	10	48	8	3
David Johnson	60	20	36	10	119
Le’Veon Bell	90	63	16	0	2
Mark Ingram	49	75	11	30	6
LeSean McCoy	0	96	40	40	7
Jordan Howard	68	92	43	18	10
Repeated	4	5	4	5

Hats off to Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara.

They are the only backs with a shred of repeatability beyond two seasons. No other running backs had more than two years as a Top-10 in a row. Injury certainly comes into play for the position, but that’s good to know as running backs become riskier. All other positions incur fewer injuries, so drafting running backs with your first four picks may feel good, but you are skipping over other positions that are less likely to miss games.

At best, only half return to the Top-10 the next season. Notable too is that last year’s Top-6 contained only one player from the previous Top-10 of 2020. The other five ranked no better than No. 25 (Austin Ekeler) the previous year. Said another way, four of the Top-6 were not even RB2-worthy in 2020 and Najee Harris was a rookie. That’s monumental shifting from year to year.

In fairness, only Kareem Hunt went from Top-10 to worse than No. 24, so that is consistency as falling to no worse than a RB2.

For those in dynasty leagues, notice how quickly great seasons turn into mediocrity. Seven of the Top-10 of 2017 have fallen off the map.

All fantasy leagues use at least two running backs and most allow three. So taking a Top-10 running back from the previous year may not provide a difference-maker, but it also won’t usually hurt your team much. But don’t get too excited about spending big on rookie rushers in your dynasty league.