“Too cute by half” is one of those colloquialisms that has made its way to the modern era. Other various of the phrase include “too clever by half,” and even “too much by halfe [sic]” which dates back to the 16th century. William Shakespeare even used a variation of it in Love’s Labor’s Lost, writing “…the letter is too long by halfe a mile.” The phrase generally stands for the proposition that someone is being too clever about something for it to be effective.
Throwing out of heavier personnel packages has become one of the core tenets for a few different offensive systems. For example, this year the Green Bay Packers have used 21 offensive personnel (two running backs, one tight end, one wide receiver) on 22% of their plays. On those plays they have thrown the ball over half the time, with Aaron Rodgers posting a 112.5 NFL passer rating and a TD/INT ratio of 7 to 1. The Cleveland Browns have used 12 offensive personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on 23% of their plays, but when using that package Baker Mayfield has completed 47 of 73 passes for an NFL passer rating of 102.1, and a TD/INT ratio of 4 to 1.
Why does this work? Because the NFL is a matchup league at its core. The benefits of throwing out of heavier personnel packages are myriad, but among them you have a better chance at selling play-action – which is a cheat code – and you also have a better chance at dictating the defensive personnel. When you are in these heavier packages on offense, the odds increase that the defense expects run and responds with a base defensive package. That means more basic coverages, and better matchups with running backs and tight ends working against linebackers in many case.
As Kevin Stefanski, the head coach of the Browns, put it:
I see guys you don’t have to leave in one position. Versatility is the key for us. We will be in 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) and we’ll be 13 (one back, three tight ends). What we don’t want to do is become predictable. We’ll have different formations out of each personnel group. We’re trying to be difficult to defend … we want (tight end) to be a position of strength for us. I always try to think of it from the defensive coordinator’s perspective, what’s going to make life hard on them, and that would be a guy that you can move around the formation.
But what happens if you, as an offense, create mismatches using heavier personnel, just not in your favor?
What happens if you are “too cute by half?”
That brings us to the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a sequence in the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Late in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss, the Buccaneers trailed by 17. They took over after a Kansas City punt on their own 32-yard line, and after a nine-yard completion from Tom Brady to Antonio Brown and a 34-yard run from Ronald Jones, they faced a 1st and 10 on the Kansas City 25-yard line. The long run from Jones came with the Buccaneers using an 11 personnel package. The Chiefs were in a 4-1-6 sub package, given the 17-point lead. They had opened the drive with that grouping on the field:
Now facing a 1st and 10 on the Chiefs’ 25-yard line, Tampa Bay huddled with their 11 personnel group still in the game. Kansas City, given the situation, expected the Buccaneers to keep the ball in the air. As such, they stayed with their 4-1-6 defense. On this first down, Brady handed to Jones on an inside zone play to the right side, and the running back picked up a single yard:
Now that brings up a second-and-9 situation.
Again, the Buccaneers are trailing by 17 at this point in the game, and the clock is running down to two minutes left in the third quarter. The Buccaneers huddle again, and make some substitutions.
Kansas City, given the situation, stays with their 4-1-6 defense for the fourth-straight play.
The Buccaneers? They go heavy and switch to a 13 personnel package. One running back, one wide receiver, and three tight ends.
Not only that, but after aligning initially with Brady under center, and Jones in the backfield along with Cameron Brate as an upback, they shift to an empty set with Brady alone in the shotgun:
What is this accomplishing, other than shifting and using heavy personnel for the sake of doing so?
First off, given the situation the Chiefs are going to expect pass and stay in their sub package, as they do on this play. So you are not getting the benefit of throwing against a base defense out of this heavy personnel look. Second, by shifting to an empty set, you are eliminating the run threat and any notion of play-action. Unless you are running Brady on a quarterback draw, in which case people need to be fired immediately.
Now, the Buccaneers did accomplish one minor goal, as the Chiefs check to a Cover 4 coverage on this play. The problem for Tampa Bay? The defense also brings pressure, sending safety Daniel Sorenson who begins the play aligned at a linebacker’s depth. Brady sees that and looks for his hot read in the form of the only wide receiver on the field, Mike Evans:
The throw never gets there as it doinks off the back of a helmet, and the pass floats into the hands of Tyrann Mathieu for the interception.
It is easy to look at the doink shot turnover and dismiss what led up to that moment, but you have to ask yourself what the Buccaneers were trying to do on this play. Given the context and the situation, 13 personnel was not moving the needle for them. If there had been evidence that the Chiefs would switch out their defense, then sure, you can use this. But on 2nd and long, trailing by 17, with a sub defense on the field, this might not have been the move.
Especially when you then shift into an empty set and completely remove the threat of a running play.
In a sense, the Buccaneers did create mismatches by doing this. Just not in their favor.
In some ways, this is just a microcosm of the bigger issues in Tampa Bay. The offense is not working right now, and they might be trying things for the sake of trying them. There is also an issue with hot reads and throws, as this was not the only instance on Sunday afternoon when a hot read was not looking for the football when they should have been. There are a lot of things to fix in Tampa Bay, and time is running short.