It’s time to start expecting the unexpected under Jon Gruden. He has now presided over three drafts since returning as Raiders head coach and in every draft, he has drafted player in the first round that most considered a reach at that pick.
Does that mean all three of those players were the wrong choice? Not necessarily.
This year the Raiders had two picks in the first round. At 12 overall they had their pick of all the receivers in the draft and they bypassed CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy in favor of the speed of Henry Ruggs III. That was a little surprising, but not a real stunner.
The stunner was their pick at No. 19 when they got Ohio State CB Damon Arnette. Every ranking out there seemed to give him a third-round grade. Even Pro Football Focus which immediately began picking out stats like Arnette holding opposing QB’s to the lowest passer rating in single coverage had him as a third-round prospect.
Still the Raiders took Arnette with most of the best cornerbacks in this draft still on the board.
Last year, they had the 4th overall pick and took Clelin Ferrell while most projections had Ferrell as a mid-first round prospect. But he fit Paul Guenther’s scheme, and the team said the phone wasn’t ringing to move down, so they pulled the trigger.
After one season, the jury is still out on Ferrell’s long term prospects. But it wasn’t the kind of rookie season you would’ve expected from a player picked in the top five. And they passed on Josh Allen who was the runner-up for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Gruden’s first draft, the Raiders had the 10th overall pick. The Raiders needed a tackle, and there were none on the board worthy of that pick, but this time they had an offer. It was the Cardinals who wanted QB Josh Rosen so the Raiders took meager compensation (third-round pick) to drop down to 15.
When 15 came around, the obvious best player on the board was safety Derwin James. The Raiders passed on James to take Kolton Miller who was projected at best a late first-round pick and as low as the third round.
Gruden placed Miller at left tackle and he looked lost out there as a rookie. To his credit, he improved considerably in his second season and is now looking like he was worthy of that selection. The bonus is that it’s at a more premium position than safety, so there is an argument to be made that Gruden made the right pick.
The jury is obviously still out on Ferrell and Arnette. Most would probably agree that a trade down before taking Arnette would have been ideal. That’s what the Raiders did last year at the top of the second round, trading down twice to 40 overall to take Trayvon Mullen.
As of now, it looks like another reach for need with Arnette. Of course that doesn’t automatically mean it was. We don’t know if another team wasn’t ready to take Arnette – who was overshadowed by third overall pick teammate Jeff Okudah – at the bottom of the first.
Miller proved his worth last season at left tackle, and if Ferrell can improve in his second season, no one will care that he was taken 10 picks before he was expected to be taken. That’s a big if, of course.
One thing to note about the Arnette pick is, unlike Ferrell and Miller, there was no player on the board who was clearly a better choice for the Raiders both from a talent and need perspective. There was no consensus best cornerback on the board which, after addressing receiver at 12, was clearly the Raiders’ biggest need.
There was, however, a group of corners widely considered the ones to choose from at that spot including Kristian Fulton, Jeff Gladney, Jaylon Johnson, and Trevon Diggs. Of those four, only Gladney was selected over the rest of the first round. He was selected by the Vikings at No. 31 overall after Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene went to the Dolphins at No. 30. For what it’s worth, Igbinoghene was projected around the same range as Arnette.
Basically, who really knows about this group of corners? All we can say now is that we will revisit this in a couple years to see which of the group was worth it and which was not.
Even still, it was a stunner. Something Gruden has been good for in each of his three drafts since his return.
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