[sendtonews_embed video_id=”GBKEoEJr7w-2437235-7498″]
To the average offensive player’s psyche, there’s nothing more backbreaking than going three-and-out in a series. Failing to convert a single first down is frustrating when searching for rhythm while sending the defense immediately back onto the field.
The Dallas Cowboys, generally regarded as one of the top defenses in the league, stand out in a number of ways. Despite ranking in the top-10 in nearly every major category, one statistic seems to spitefully betray them: a respectable three-and-out rate.
Arjun Menon, by way of nflreadr.com, recently ran the three-and-out rates on both sides of the ball across the entire NFL. The Cowboys’ defense is near the bottom of the league.
How often defenses have forced three and outs this season. Ejiro Evero has been amazing in Denver despite their record and Demeco Ryans is a sure-fire HC hire this offseason. pic.twitter.com/tOx5OgeNsB
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) December 21, 2022
Dan Quinn’s unit has been shockingly good in 2022.
They are second in the NFL in sacks (49) and fourth in pressures (138), third in DVOA (-13/9%), tied for sixth in points allowed (269), seventh in yards allowed (4,545), and third in EPA/play against (-0.088).
All of this is great, yet they do a horrible job of immediately shutting down an opponent drive and getting the ball right back to their offense, only produce three-and-outs 28% of the time.
The other NFC East teams rank higher while San Francisco, New England and Denver — the only teams other than the Cowboys who rank in the top-4 in both DVOA and EPA — also rank top-4 in three-and-outs, making Dallas’ low level all the more puzzling.
The Cowboys defense, which is the only one ranked in the top-10 in Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3 usage, appears to take more of a bend-but-don’t-break mentality. They produce at a success rate of 42%, sixth-best in the NFL.
Offensively, the Cowboys aren’t doing much better, ranking 20th at 33%.
They have the distinction of being tied with well-regarded offensive juggernauts Chicago, Arizona and the New York Jets.
Once again, the other top teams in DVOA and EPA are also amongst the best in three-and-out rate as well. And once again, all of the other teams the NFC East rate better than Dallas. In fact, Washington, New York, and Philadelphia’s offenses are all top-10 in lowest three-and-out rate.
The Cowboys, despite their efficiency and productivity metrics being high, are routinely sending a unit right back onto the field. This was crystalized in their come-from-ahead loss to Jacksonville.
In Week 15, Dallas had four second-half drives that were three plays or less. The only time the defense got off the field in under four plays was a three-play touchdown drive.
While three-and-outs aren’t a crippling statistic on it’s own, it does speak to the mentality and urgency of each unit as they enter the field. Cause for concern?