Mitchell Trubisky is going to be a Pittsburgh Steeler. In terms of NFL landing spots, this may be his best case scenario.
Sure, he’s going to get battered behind a porous line of scrimmage. He’s also going to a division where he’ll have to deal with the reigning AFC champions, an always-dangerous Baltimore Ravens team, and whatever the Cleveland Browns are in 2022.
But in a land where lessened quarterback expectations created a gravity well that sucked down everyone in its path, Trubisky could rise above his field. Between Ben Roethlisberger’s waning arm strength, Dwayne Haskins’ failed lottery ticket, and Mason Rudolph’s overwhelming Mason Rudolph-ness, Pittsburgh has been forced to endure sub-replacement quarterbacking the past two seasons. Despite this, the Steelers made it to the postseason each year.
Pittsburgh simply needs a caretaker quarterback to be a viable playoff team. That’s exactly what Trubisky is capable of providing. He won nearly two-thirds of his starts in his last three seasons in Chicago by doing just enough to allow a punishing defense to be a difference maker. The drop-off between late-stage Roethlisberger and starting quarterback Trubisky isn’t very steep:
Trubisky attempts more downfield throws than Roethlisberger, which should be a balm for Chase Claypool and open up Diontae Johnson to run more deep routes. Pittsburgh’s efforts to mitigate its veteran quarterback’s arm strength and a limited offensive line was to dial up a litany of short passes that got the ball out of the pocket faster than any other team in the NFL. More than 71 percent of Roethlisberger’s attempts in 2021 traveled fewer than nine yards downfield.
Trubisky, playing in a similarly limited offense in Chicago, had the arm to take more chances downfield. It didn’t always work in his favor, but he was ultimately more likely to throw for a touchdown and averaged more yards per pass than the QB he’ll replace in Pittsburgh.
It’s also worth noting that Roethlisberger, playing in his age 38 and 39 seasons, had six official scrambles across 31 games. Trubisky scrambled 75 times in 39 games his final three years in Chicago and was significantly more effective. That’s an important distinction when you’re dealing with an offensive line PFF ranked 26th-best in the NFL last season.
In terms of advanced stats, Trubisky’s average play added 0.098 adjusted expected points to the Bears’ scoreboard from 2018-20, a metric that takes into account success rate and scrambling across the spectrum of offensive outcomes. That’s not a good number by any stretch — it ranked 29th among 50 qualified QBs in that span. But Roethlisberger’s Adj. EPA/play from 2020-21 was just 0.067. If the Steelers get the Bears version of Trubisky, he’ll be an upgrade on a play-by-play basis.
Trubisky brings another trait with him to Pittsburgh; while terms of his two-year deal haven’t yet been disclosed, he’s likely (relatively) inexpensive. That’s good news for a team that needs to spend its estimated $27 million in salary cap room on offensive line improvements and finding a safety replacement for Terrell Edmunds. Trading for Jimmy Garoppolo would have cost the team more than $25 million in cap space this season. Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston could command eight figures in free agency this spring thanks to a limited crop of available QBs with starting experience.
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Is Trubisky a good quarterback? Not especially! But he’s going to an offense that’s spent the last two seasons planning around a limited passer. The former No. 2 overall pick has more tools in his arsenal than late-stage Ben Roethlisberger. His ability to scramble out of pressure can extend drives, mitigate the team’s blocking concerns up front and, perhaps most importantly, give a talented group of wideouts a little extra time for their routes to develop downfield.
From a statistical basis, the maligned version of Trubisky we saw crash out of Chicago is a more efficient player than the one he’ll replace. He’ll get an upgrade when it comes to his receiving corps and a young tailback the Steelers like so much they burned a first round pick to ensure they got him in 2021.
More importantly, the bar for success is attainably low in Pittsburgh. The Steelers built a playoff team around a quarterback who couldn’t consistently throw downfield in an offense designed around getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. Trubisky will add new pages to that playbook. As long as his defense and skill players can provide a rising tide, he might just float his way back into the starting lineup and to a second Nickelodeon Valuable Player award come playoff time.
Of course, he’s still Mitchell Trubisky. Don’t expect his presence to prevent the Steelers from drafting a quarterback if someone they’ve fallen in love with slides to the 20th pick come April. Just because he’s better than 2021 Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t mean Pittsburgh should stop looking.