The Spoiler Index: Which losing teams can most affect the playoff race?

These nine teams aren’t going to get to the playoffs, but they could make things difficult for those expecting postseason opportunities.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

Current record: 3-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 1-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 2

The Buccaneers have ridden two obvious weaknesses to their 3-7 record — a secondary that has the Bucs ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted rankings in pass defense, and a quarterback in Jameis Winston who can’t stop throwing interceptions. Winston currently leads the league with 18 picks, tying the career high he set in 2016. The thing about Winston, though, is that he can turn his GPS on at any given time and become a superior threat in short spurts. In a four-game stretch from Week 2 through Week 5, Winston threw 10 touchdown passes to two interceptions, and the Bucs went 2-2. This included games against the Panthers, Rams, and Saints, so it wasn’t as if Winston was picking on pass defenses as bad as his own.

If Winston can actually play up to his potential through the end of the season, the Colts and Texans could experience upsets down the road.

5. Chicago Bears

(Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

Current record: 4-6
2019 record vs. winning teams: 1-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 4

The Bears rank fourth in Defensive DVOA this season. Pretty consistent with last season’s No. 1 ranking, though they’re way down from 2018’s league-leading 27 interceptions — Chicago has just seven this season. Khalil Mack is not quite the force he was last season, but he still has 44 total pressures. Chicago is still trying to figure things out as a rushing offense with satellite player Tarik Cohen and rookie David Montgomery, but the real and obvious issue is with quarterback Miutchell Trubisky, The 4-6 Bears are to the point where they have to win in spite of their quarterback, which is never a good way to go.

Still, when Trubisky plays at even a league-average level, the Bears have the potential to put a quality product on the field. Head coach Matt Nagy would be wise to put Trubisky in more boot-action and running situations — if that works out, the Bears could present actual challenges to the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings in their final four games.

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