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The New Orleans Saints already dropped a game they had in the bag to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants, but they’re in even more dire straits against Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks this week. A 3-2 record in the crowded NFC just isn’t good enough, and you only need to glance at the standings to see what’s at stake.
Right now five different teams have already hit five wins — including the division-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6-1, who the Saints will host in the Caesars Superdome next week. New Orleans needs a win on Monday night in the worst way to keep pace with them and eventually challenge for the NFC South title.
A potential loss, however, sends the Saints down to 3-3 and right in the middle of a morass. That’s where mediocre teams like the 3-3 Minnesota Vikings and 3-3 Atlanta Falcons belong, just ahead of the even-worse Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers (who beat the Saints handily when a third of the coaching staff and superstar cornerback Marshon Lattimore were unavailable in Week 2).
Let’s look at it another way. NFL researchers found that teams with a 3-2 record have a 55% chance at reaching the playoffs. With a win, the Saints can raise their odds to 67%, but a loss sees them slide down to 42%. Obviously there are extreme scenarios where a team that starts the year rough, like New Orleans has, can sort itself out later in the season and come roaring back to make some noise.
That’s exactly what Tampa Bay themselves did last year after a 3-2 start. They won three games in a row and ran into a skid, entering their Week 13 bye at 7-5. Then they rode an 8-game win streak all the way to a Super Bowl victory.
Can the Saints do that too? Who knows. Falling flat against a bad Seahawks team working with a backup quarterback, even if it’s on the road in ugly weather, would say a lot of negative things about them. But winning this game handily, as they should, would be mighty encouraging.
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