There’s no easy way to excuse what coach Pete Carroll, general manager John Schneider and the Seattle Seahawks did when trading two first-round picks for safety Jamal Adams.
There is precedent for such a blockbuster. In 2018, the Oakland Raiders nabbed Khalil Mack after sending two first-round picks to the Chicago Bears. The Houston Texans traded two first-round picks for tackle Laremy Tunsil in 2019 after struggling to fill the position and, in turn, stunting Deshaun Watson’s development.
Last October, the Los Angeles Rams gave up a pair of first-rounders for cornerback Jalen Ramsey – who seemed, at least to GM Les Snead, to be the only thing separating L.A. from playoff relevance. But these are premium positions: edge, left tackle and cornerback. Safety seems to be one of the NFL’s least valued positions, which might be why the New York Jets had a hard time finding a trade partner who met their asking price.
Here’s what each team received in the deal:
Jets get:
2021 1st round pick
2022 1st round pick
2021 3rd round pick
S Bradley McDougald
Seahawks get:
Jamal Adams
2022 4th round pick
So, yes, the Seahawks overpaid.
The diminishing value of a safety in 2020
When looking at the safety market in respect to its diminishing value, it’s easy to reference the 2019 free agency class, which featured so many standouts (Landon Collins, Earl Thomas, Tyrann Mathieu, Lamarcus Joyner and Adrian Amos, among others) that the middle-tier free agents were forced to wait forever for a deal, in part because there was so much talent and in part because the NFL has come to value this position (much like running back) to a lesser degree.
This offseason, Malcolm Jenkins received the biggest deal at his position with a four-year and $32 million contract. It was another signal of the NFL devaluing the safety position, albeit in an offseason without much talent at the position on the market.
When running back value was hitting an all time low in 2018, Carroll and the Seahawks drafted running back Rashad Penny in the first round. So it seems fitting that at a time when the safety market hit a similar low, Seattle went after a safety. This might seems like a moment when Carroll is zigging while the NFL is zagging. (At least, that’s what we’d say if Bill Belichick was making this move. He, like Carroll, drafted a running back in the first round in 2018.)
But Carroll’s history of inflexibility is troubling. His antiquated methodology on offense (running the ball too often with perennial MVP candidate Russell Wilson on the offense) seems to be holding back the Seahawks. On defense, it’s more complicated, with some evolution since the Legion of Boom era — but perhaps not enough.
Can Adams be more than just a safety?
Let’s explore the possibility that Carroll is onto something.
After all, coverage is coming to be the most important element of a defense. So by that logic, the Seahawks might be buying Adams, a safety, at a low point to help with a facet of the game that arguably has never been more important.
But there’s a problem with that argument, too. Adams isn’t the single-high safety that helped make the Legion of Boom special. Adams isn’t Earl Thomas. In fact, Adams spent so much time in the box that he registered as a linebacker and a defensive lineman more times than a safety since entering the NFL, per ESPN Stats and Info.
According to @ESPNStatsInfo, Jamal Adams has actually lined up for more snaps at LB/DL than safety since entering the league.
Very curious to see how Seattle deploys him….
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) July 25, 2020
As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell points out, Adams’ gifts include rushing the passer, a duty which yielded 12 career sacks and 23 career knockdowns, the most from any defensive back since he entered the league. Adams is special — but not in the ways that makes it easy to justify the Seahawks acting like he’s a premium player.
Even so, the statistic about his versatility (in the tweet above) echoes of Mathieu, who played all over the Kansas City Chiefs defense and was pivotal in stopping the San Francisco 49ers in the the Super Bowl. And that’s the one sliver of light for the Seahawks. Seattle can justify the deal if they can use Adams in a way that’s versatile enough to change our understanding of his position (thereby making him a positionless player). That’s a tall task.
Carroll, the king of secondary coaching, is probably up for it. But the move is so aggressive that, even with Adams’ skills and even with Carroll’s history of success (and even with the New York Jets’ lack of success in the draft), the Seahawks probably won’t win this trade.
Much like I appreciated the Pittsburgh Steelers’ boldness for their decision to acquire Minkah Fitzpatrick for a first round pick during the 2019 season, I can’t help but appreciate the Seahawks’ moxie for attempting to make this work. And in the same way, I won’t be able to look away, because there’s so much potential for both failure and success.
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