After falling behind 2-0 in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder had an arduous task ahead of them – something that just 21 teams have done in league history.
Of teams that have fallen behind 2-0 in any round of the NBA playoffs, 288 have lost. Only 21 have won, according to WhoWins.com.
Limiting this to just the first round of the playoffs, six of the 87 teams to face a 2-0 deficit have come back to win.
That’s not an ideal start to the playoffs.
But the Thunder pushed ahead, winning Game 3. This is something the majority of teams down 2-0 actually do: Of the 309 series that start 2-0, 173 times (56%) has the team trailing won Game 3.
But winning Game 3 is just one step.
Historically, the team up 2-1 wins almost 80% of the time.
Of the 407 series in which a team had a 2-1 lead, the team in the Thunder’s position won the series 83 times.
Oklahoma City won Monday. That 2-2 series now looks promising. But historically, that’s not a particularly strong indicator toward the Thunder.
While almost every 2-1 series goes in favor of the team with the lead, the team trailing wins Game 4 the slight majority of the time. Historically, the Game 4 record is 199-208 in favor of the team that had been trailing.
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Then, from that point on, the team that originally had the lead tends to roll to the next round.
They win Game 5 most of the time.
Every game is of massive importance so it feels needless to specify Game 5 is, but it must be emphasized: As logic would dictate, winning Game 5 is extremely important.
The team that holds a 3-2 lead wins the series 84.5% of the time.
Oklahoma City has taken two straight games from the Rockets, largely with clutch play from the guards, timely defense and inconsistent 3-point shooting from Houston.
Historically and statistically speaking, winning that third game in a row would go a long way in taking down the Rockets and advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Game 5 between the Thunder and Rockets tips off Wednesday at 5:30 p.m.
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