Recently, NBC Sports analyst and former NFL quarterback Chris Simms claimed that Warren Moon had the best deep passing arm of any NFL quarterback he’s ever seen, and that Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has the best deep passing arm he’s seen in the league today. The latter opinion raised a predictable ruckus, as happens whenever an analyst makes a definitive statement. Fans of teams with other quarterbacks waded in, as tends to happen, with cases for their own teams’ quarterbacks.
This is all subjective, of course. One quarterback might have the best deep passing on one Sunday, or a short series of Sundays, and then may cede the title to another. Were we to break it down with metrics and tape (which is what we at Touchdown Wire like to do), we would perhaps come up with a list of the NFL’s best deep passers based on ability to throw under pressure, receiver separation, and a host of other factors.
So, let’s do that. Here’s one analyst’s opinion regarding the best deep throwers in the league, and why. We’re using tape study, as well as Pro Football Focus’ metrics regarding throws of 20 or more air yards, Sports Info Solutions’ data on specific deep routes (post, fade, slant-and-go, deep cross, etc.), and Next Gen Stats’ numbers regarding throws into tight coverage, percentage of air yards, and attempted/completed air yards.
To be a bit more specific about deep ball prowess, we are not going to give special kudos to quarterbacks who rely to an inordinate degree on the athletic prowess of their receivers to make deep throws happen. We are looking for those quarterbacks who use timing, arm talent, the ability to throw long distances into tight windows, and the understanding of passing game structure to make these plays.
Re: Deep passing. Kirk Cousins is one of the most statistically efficient deep-ball throwers in the NFL, and he can drop it in the bucket, but he relies on a lot of what I call "GoFundMe balls" from his receivers. Stefon Diggs with the win here. pic.twitter.com/uSfOwwYvRv
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) May 18, 2020
The best deep-ball throwers are the ones who don't need "GoFundMe balls" from their receivers. The end zone angle of this Patrick Mahomes TD to Tyreek Hill shows the exactitude required of the best to do it. pic.twitter.com/s3fNcoXSNN
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) May 18, 2020
Minshew | Cousins | Brady | Watson | Prescott | Jackson |
Rodgers | Tannehill | Wilson | Mahomes