Every great empire eventually meets its end. Roman, Ottaman, Byzantine, British- all had their long reigns of power and control until they all went down in a blaze of glory. It appears that Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have officially met that same fate.
This is the worst team the Patriots have ever had in Belichick’s reign, and that includes the 5-11 2000 team. The 2000 Patriots finished with a -62 point differential- the 2023 Patriots currently sit at -80. The 2000 Patriots averaged just over 17 points per game- the 2023 Patriots are averaging 12 points per game, which is last in the NFL. Their offense is also last in the league in EPA/play, 31st in EPA/dropback, and 31st in EPA/rush.
Everyone seems so surprised at the Patriots’ struggles as well, but this isn’t new. Since Tom Brady left, there has been a clear and obvious ceiling on New England. The Cam Newton project of 2020 was such a failure that the team cut Newton ahead of the 2021 season in favor of Mac Jones. The Patriots went 10-7 that year after playing a very weird schedule. They had the wind tunnel game in Buffalo where they only threw the ball three times, they were dealt a great hand in terms of teams they played being severely injured, and the Josh McDaniels offense suited Jones’ skillset, or lack thereof. Once they got into the playoffs, though, the Bills put on one of the most dominant performances in playoff history, taking New England’s lunch money and giving them a swirlie on the way to a 47-17 win.
By the looks of it, that is the Patriots ceiling with this quarterback and this current construction of the roster. Jones is a limited quarterback. He’s not athletic, he doesn’t have a big arm, and defenses don’t have to account for his legs. Not only that, but what has Bill Belichick been thinking with some of these wide receiver signings? Nelson Agholor getting $16 million guaranteed in 2021? JuJu Smith-Schuster being signed for the same amount of guarantied money this past offseason? Signing DeVante parker to a $30 million contract over four years? None of these guys are No. 2 receivers on a really good team, much less go-to No. 1 targets. Lo and behold, though, that’s what the Patriots’ receiving corps has looked like over the last two seasons.
That lack of talent might have something to do with why they can’t score points. The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos- the Patriots have scored 72 points all season. They went 10 quarters without a touchdown and were outscored 69-3 in Weeks 4 and 5.
More and more as time goes on, it appears that the game is beginning to pass Bill Belichick by. Which isn’t to take away anything that he has accomplished, nor is it to say he isn’t the greatest coach of all time. But let’s face the facts here. Since Brady’s departure, the Patriots have more losing seasons than playoff appearances. They are averaging roughly 22 points per game in that span, but if you take away three incredible outlier games in that span in which they poured on 45, 45, and 54 point performances against the Jets, Chargers, and Browns, respectively, that number goes down to just 19 points per game.
They are very clearly the fourth best team in their own division, and arguably have the worst quarterback in the division, as well. Zach Wilson may be bad, but Mac Jones might be worse. Jones currently has a lower EPA+CPOE composite score and has turned the ball over more than Wilson. It’s clear the quarterback of the future for New England isn’t currently on their roster, and that severe drop-off from Brady to Newton to Jones has been a huge factor in why they have had such a fall from grace.
For 20 years, Brady and Belichick were The Rockers. Four years after the breakup, though, it’s very evident who was the Shawn Michaels of the group and who was Marty Jannetty. Brady continued to have success, won another Super Bowl without Belichick, and played at an MVP level. The Patriots’ magnum opus since the breakup is a participation trophy in the 2021-22 playoffs before getting violated by an actual good team and being the butt-end of many a joke.
The empire has officially fallen. All that remains now are Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft seemingly awaiting another inevitable breakup as their season slowly fades into obscurity.