With so much roster turnover this offseason in Buffalo, the Bills will have a new look to some extent on both sides of the ball.
With the departures of both the team’s WR1 and WR2, replacing their productivity has been a frequent question and hot topic.
Especially in terms of how Buffalo will now turn to multiple players to replace the production of Stefon Diggs, who accounted for 160 targets with 107 catches and 1,183 yards along with eight touchdowns in 2023 despite a diminished role in the second half of the season.
The returning members of the Bills’ passing game, TEs Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, as well as WR Khalil Shakir figure to play key roles as contributors to the offense given their experience with QB Josh Allen.
On Caesar Sportsbook and Omaha Productions’ The Mina Kimes Show this past week, Kimes and Patriots coverage writer Taylor Kiles talked about Buffalo and the AFC East, as well as Kincaid specifically.
“Kincaid is the one that I am most optimistic about, especially early on, and perhaps most intrigued by in year two because in the second half of the season, you really saw him start to emerge,” Kimes noted.
“Obviously Dawson Knox was injured at points during the season so they didn’t get to use as much 12 personnel as we thought that they would when they drafted Kincade, but something that really stuck out to me, and I think is so important when we talk about ‘how do you replace Stefon Digg’s production’, is ‘what do you do when you face man coverage’.
Stefon Diggs is one of the best man-beating receivers in the NFL of the last 10 years right as a route runner, his ability to get open quickly and separate, his hands, and you saw in the second half of the season Kincaid start to emerge as an answer to that as well.
After the coordinator change, when the Bills faced man coverage Kincaid’s target share jumped, he averaged more yards per route run versus man coverage than Stefon Diggs in that second part of the season, and his air yards per attempt took a massive leap from 5.8 to over eight air yards per attempt. They were using him over the middle of the field, getting favorable matchups because of his position, and I feel like if that can continue and he continue evolving as a reliable option that’s going to be so meaningful for this offense,” Kimes added.
The analysis tracks both in terms of Kincaid’s versatile skill set and ability to contribute to the passing game as a receiver, but also as a primary target tight end. Kincaid and Shakir saw their roles increase as the 2023 season went on,
The Bills added Kincaid alongside Dawson Knox, in part, to open up more two tight end sets to unlock a new part of their offense. While that actualization wasn’t realized in former coordinator Ken Dorsey’s offense, we may see it more in new OC Joe Brady’s.
“You mentioned the Chiefs in their condensed formations, I really think you want to borrow heavily from some of the things that they did to get Travis Kelce open versus those looks with bunches and the way they’ve used in particular over the last few years when they go into their quads looks with the Kansas City Chiefs, I just feel like Dalton Kincaid can be used very similarly.”
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