If you just looked at the record of the Kansas City Chiefs, you would assume it’s been business as usual. If the AFC West was a boy band, they would be the Harry Styles of the group at 5-1 while the rest of the division was an assortment of Louis Tomlinsons and J.C. Chasezs.
If you zoom in on the picture, though, it doesn’t take much investigating to see these Chiefs aren’t striking the fear of God into teams the way they have in the past- and that starts with the offense.
Since 2018, the Chiefs haven’t averaged less than 28.2 points per game. Through six games, they are averaging 24.5 points per game, and have been held to less than 24 points three times. For comparison, Kansas City scored less than 24 points three times throughout the entirety of 2022, and four times in total in 2021.
It would be one thing if the Chiefs were struggling to score against top-notch teams and defenses, but look at who they have played. They destroyed Chicago, as they should have, but the Broncos held them to 19 points- Denver is last in the league in defensive EPA/play. A bad Vikings defense kept things close, as did a Jets team that has struggled to find any footing this season.
Patrick Mahomes has looked somewhat off, as well. We are starting to see more of the “YOLO” ball we saw in 2021, where he gets careless in throws downfield. He leads the NFL in turnover worthy throws of 20 or more yards downfield, and he got away with an interception against the Broncos that was negated. He also entered Week six with the same amount of turnover worthy plays as big time throws (7), per PFF.
Now, a lot of that could be chalked up to Kansas City’s lack of a go-to receiver. Travis Kelce is great, but the Chiefs don’t have a guy who can stretch the field consistently. Rookie Rashee Rice leads all Chiefs receivers with 21 catches- the same amount as Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith.
Could this all just be an overreaction in the middle of October? Maybe. It wouldn’t be the first time someone said it’s “panic time” for the Chiefs right before Kansas City went on a tear. That said, the offense needs to get it together quickly. Here is what the next month of their schedule looks like:
- vs. Chargers
- at Broncos
- vs. Dolphins (Germany)
- vs. Eagles
Plus, they host Buffalo at the beginning of December, as well as the Bengals in Week 17. It’s one thing to toy with your food before eating it against the putrid Broncos. If you do it against the Dolphins or Eagles, though, they’ll make you pay for it. So whether they decide that they need to trade for someone, or fix something schematically, the Chiefs need to wake up. If they don’t, that’ll be the difference between whether or not the road to Super Bowl LVIII goes through Arrowhead.