It’s official. In terms of annual average salary, Daniel Jones is the seventh-highest paid player in the NFL.
His four year, $160 million contract extension pays him as much per season as NFC counterparts Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. He’ll take home $82 million in guarantees — more than all but seven other players in the league and more than three times as much as he earned to go 21-31-1 in four years as a starting quarterback. He earned this contract after throwing 15 touchdown passes in 16 games in 2022. He ranked second-to-last among qualified starters with an average pass distance of just 6.4 yards downfield.
All this, somehow, isn’t as bad as it seems.
Daniel Jones' $82M guaranteed at signing ranks 8th in the league, and secures him $10M more than two franchise tags would have paid him. https://t.co/D8MyLptW9K
— Spotrac (@spotrac) March 7, 2023
First, let’s look at how we got here. Jones had the fifth year option on his rookie contract declined following two awful seasons under the stewardship of Joe Judge in 2020 and 2021 (his rookie year, while not great by any means, was mostly fine for a new QB). He then produced his finest season as a pro with Brian Daboll manning the sideline, producing career highs in passer rating, QBR and fourth-quarter comebacks, a career low in turnover rate (just eight in 16 games) and even a playoff win (over a fraudulent Vikings team, but still).
This left him in familiar territory once surveyed by a similarly derided first round pick. Blake Bortles led the Jacksonville Jaguars within one quarter of a Super Bowl in 2017, the final year of a rookie contract the team initially was eager to shed. Rather than let him test free agency, the Jags inked him to a three-year, $54 million deal. That didn’t pan out, and Jacksonville was able to release him the following offseason with limited cap ramifications.
The Giants weren’t able to pull that off with its uneven, young and potentially available quarterback (though coincidentally the Bortles pact is similar to the contract extension Geno Smith just signed in Seattle). Jones earned an extra year on his deal, effectively tying him to the club through 2024 (at which point he can likely angle for another extension should he continue to outplay expectations or prepare for his imminent release if he does not).
Bortles’ deal paid him roughly 10.2 percent of the 2018 salary cap per year and his guarantees ($26.5 million) were roughly 15 percent of the spending limit. Jones’ clocks in at 17.8 percent of the salary cap in annual spending and his guaranteed cash is 36.5 percent. Even adjusting for inflation, this was a significant reset to the market for shaky-then-successful fifth-year quarterbacks.
The thing is, it’s a bet the Giants had to make. Daboll, the offensive coordinator who brought out the best in Josh Allen in Buffalo, delivered a similar rise in a very different way with Jones. Moreover, he did so with a receiving corps whose top three wideouts were Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins.
Jones’ short passes weren’t the result of a Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger-like lack of arm strength or faith downfield — they were because he didn’t have anyone who could reliably get open. For what it’s worth, Jones’ deep ball IQR score of 101 — Sports Information Solutions’ proprietary formula that determines a quarterback’s effectiveness and efficiency — ranked fourth out of 32 qualified passers in 2022.
The Giants not only have momentum in 2023, but they also have an opportunity. Finishing third in the division means a slightly easier schedule than the Eagles or Cowboys, locking in games against the Saints and Packers. The intra-conference schedule pits the NFC East against the West — a division where half the teams (the Rams and Cardinals) will be in flux next fall. A cross-conference schedule against the AFC East isn’t ideal, but it’s reasonable to look at the upcoming slate and come up with another nine wins.
That won’t happen without stability at quarterback. Jones was almost certainly the best the Giants were going to do.
The passer who once resembled a wobbly baby giraffe taking its first steps produced 0.119 expected points added (EPA) per play — 11th-best in the NFL and better than guys like Smith, Lamar Jackson and Derek Carr. The only available quarterbacks who ranked above him were Jimmy Garoppolo (whose game is wholly dependent on playmaking wideouts and tight ends New York decidedly does not have) and Jacoby Brissett (whose arrival would spur protest were he unveiled as Jones’ replacement).
So if not Jones, then who? The Giants aren’t even the most appealing destination for a veteran quarterback in their own stadium thanks to a Jets team backed by a crushing defense and loaded with young playmakers. January’s postseason win cemented the 26th pick in this year’s draft — likely too far back to even trade into position to take a top four quarterback prospect.
The only way to capitalize on 2022’s momentum — the team’s first rays of hope since 2016 (or possibly 2012, depending on how you view Ben McAdoo) — was to retain Jones’ services. It cost the team more than it would like and added an extra year of commitment compared to the Bortles standard, but there wasn’t any other clear option other than keeping Dave Gettleman’s franchise quarterback with Dave Gettleman’s former franchise.
Daboll now has two more years to coax another leap out of Jones, hoping to pair his scrambling ability with an offense capable of unlocking some semblance of consistency downfield. That’s a value bet to make, even if it came at a cost of at least $82 million. It’s shocking to hear “Daniel Jones, top 10 highest paid player in the NFL.” But that’s the price the Giants had to pay to harness the momentum they believe could help them escape the franchise’s own woeful gravity.
It’s a risky move, but a necessary one. And if it doesn’t work, well, hopefully Jones is bad enough to set the Giants up for a prime draft pick in 2025.