If you’ve read any of my stories about the collegiate basketball postseason, first of all, thank you. Second of all, however, you’ve probably heard me say that the NCAA Tournament is more about the best players on a team being able to lift and separate rather than depth. A deep bench gives you a good chance at racking up regular-season wins, but in the final minutes of a one-possession game, you need your guys to be better than their guys.
Luckily for the Blue Devils, they have one of the best five-man rotations in the country. However, the strength of Duke’s starting lineup hasn’t helped it over the past two games, as the Blue Devils dropped two in a row to in-state rivals North Carolina and NC State to limp into the tournament field.
Each of Duke’s best players had their poor moments over the last month, but Jon Scheyer needs them all to show up right here, right now. Here are the most important players to Duke’s next handful of games and the ones who can turn the season into a second-round exit or a trip to Phoenix.
The only non-starter on this list, Duke desperately needs some shooting from its bench. The Blue Devils have three players getting notable minutes off the seats, and the other two are 6-foot-9 freshman Sean Stewart and 6-foot-10 center Ryan Young. Jaylen Blakes could see some time, too, but he’s shooting below 30% from beyond the arc.
Power has attempted 47 shots this season, and 39 of them have been 3-pointers. Since January began, however, the 6-foot-9 freshman is shooting 6/25 (24%) from beyond the arc. Scheyer has turned to Power in some big moments down the stretch this year, and if a member of Duke’s backcourt is off or in foul trouble, he suddenly becomes a go-to option for big threes.
He doesn’t need to be special or take over a game. He doesn’t even need to score 10 points. If he takes three shots, though, Duke needs him to hit at least one.
One of the more inconsistent players from the regular season, Proctor seemed to find some footing down the stretch. He reached double-digit points in six of his last eight regular-season games, and he’s had at least three assists in his last seven games. However, a 4/16 performance from the field against NC State felt more reminiscent of his struggles in early February.
Proctor’s impact on the game rarely shows up on box scores. He’s one of Duke’s better defenders, using his frame and effort to help limit opposing backcourts, and he’s the best passer and facilitator on the team. However, with Caleb Foster gone, there’s no relief for the Blue Devils’ guards. The sophomore has shown a penchant for hitting big shots no matter his recent form, and Duke needs that guy.
The most reliable player on the team, there’s no question the Second Team All-American will show up ready to play. The 7-footer has scored 20 points in three of his last four games. However, the loss to the Wolfpack showed something he may have to do at least once to sustain a tournament run.
The Blue Devils’ three starting guards combined to shoot 7/28 from the floor and 3/14 from 3-point range against NC State, so for long stretches of the second half, Duke stayed in the game through Filipowski’s sheer force of will. The sophomore got the ball on almost every possession for a five-minute stretch, fighting through double-teams and whatever else NC State threw his way.
For as good Duke’s offense is on paper, the team’s best shooters seemingly never show up all at the same time. If Duke is going to make it to the Elite Eight or even farther, the Blue Devils will need to survive at least one bad shooting night. That game is going to rest squarely on the shoulders of their best player.
Jared McCain’s resume throughout the entire regular season speaks for itself. He finished second in the ACC Rookie of the Year voting after a season that featured a 35-point game and four double-doubles. However, McCain’s unquestioned status as one of the best freshmen in the country has covered up that he hasn’t quite been the same since that dominant game against the Seminoles.
The first-year guard has played seven games since his 35-point explosion in Tallahassee. He scored seven points on nine shots against Miami, seven points on eight shots in a blowout win over Virginia, 16 points on 14 shots in the first game against NC State, and eight points on six shots in the ACC Tournament loss.
He was exceptional in the first half against UNC, one of the biggest reasons Duke had an outside chance late, but he’s shooting 43% from the floor and 35% from three over the last seven games. In the seven games before, between the Clemson game and that day against Florida State, his splits were 48.9% and 40.4%
McCain has been good the entire season, but there was a time less than a month ago when it felt like every catch-and-shoot look he had would find nylon. If he can tap into that alongside Filipowski’s current form, Duke will be a nightmare.
The only upperclassman in the starting lineup, Roach needs to be the heartbeat in the postseason. One of the best ballhandlers on the team needs to be able to dictate the pace, slowing the game down or speeding it up when necessary. When Duke needs a big bucket and Filipowski is eliminated by the opposing defense, Roach has been the go-to guy.
The senior averaged close to 45% from three for most of the regular season, but he’s missed 15 of his last 19 attempts from beyond the line. In fact, he’s been 4/18 from the floor over his last two games. Narratives in sports can be dangerous, and analyzing a team through a narrative sense is usually lazy, but Duke operates best when Roach leads the way. The fourth-year guard will need to summon his best self to forge a path to the Final Four.