There is no sugarcoating the home stretch for Wisconsin basketball’s regular season. It is as difficult as you will find anywhere in the country. Welcome to the 2020-2021 Big Ten conference.
That stretch begins on the road at No. 12 Illinois (12-5, 8-3), a team that has found their groove over the past few games after starting slower than many expected. The Fighting Illini have a unique mix of youth and experience, and a team with personnel that fits together well.
For head coach Brad Underwood and this edition of Illinois, Ayo Dosunmu has the keys to the car. When the junior is on, he is driving the Illini Ferrari. The Chicago native’s 21.2 points per game leads the team, and he does a little bit of everything in addition to putting the ball in the basket. Throughout Dosunmu’s collegiate career, arguably the most significant improvements on offense have come with distance shooting and creating for others. He is shooting a career-high 41.1% from three and has improved as a primary ball handler.
Dosunmu had 18 points to lead Illinois in their road win at Wisconsin last season. Whether it be Brad Davison, D’Mitrik Trice, or a bigger defender, expect the Badgers to throw a number of looks at the Fighting Illini’s best player.
Illinois prides itself on rebounding, and they have outrebounded opponents by over 10 boards on average this year. That starts with Kofi Cockburn, the 7-footer from Jamaica who is averaging a double-double with over 16 points and 10 rebounds per contest. Wisconsin’s frontline will have their hands full with the interior presence of one of the best bigs in college basketball. The Badgers have to rebound and the bigs have to stay out of foul trouble for Wisconsin to have a decent chance.
It’s not just about the pair of Cockburn and Dosunmu for Underwood and the Illini.
Four-star 2020 PG Andre Curbelo has lived up to the hype and then some as a true freshman. The Puerto Rican PG has been an energizing sixth-man for this Illini team as he not only creates offense for himself, but creates for others with flair that only few players in the country possess. The Curbelo experience is somewhere between an and-one mixtape and watching your crafty fifty-year old cousin who played D1 basketball destroy at the YMCA. You are guaranteed to see something exciting when watching him, but there will be freshman mistakes along the way. Curbelo was crucial in Illinois’ win over Indiana on Tuesday as he finished in crunch time with Dosunmu fouled out.
Speaking of fantastic on Tuesday, Trent Frazier lit it up at Indiana with 19 points, most of which came in the second half. He has dropped 24 and 19 respectively in his last two games (both Illinois wins) and is a prolific three-point shooter.
Long story short, Illinois has a number of players capable of producing offense, but things will run through Dosunmu and Cockburn with a splash of Curbelo and Frazier on most nights.
There hasn’t been one theme in the five Illinois losses. Instead, it has felt like a different issue almost anytime they struggle. Against Rutgers, their second half defense fell apart in a tough loss while against Maryland the supporting cast gave them next to nothing in an upset defeat. If there is one theme that leads to Illini struggles it should be the latter. Dosunmu and Cockburn are going to get theirs. The key feels like stopping the other guys. Their defense has also left something to be desired at times, especially with the personnel and head coach they have.
Wisconsin has to start by taking the other guys away. They need to limit Curbelo, true freshman Adam Miller, and Frazier to have a chance on the road. Will the Badgers be physical enough inside to not let Cockburn take over? That question will apply to both ends of the floor as the bigs have to stay disciplined.
This Illinois team is primed for a March run with the star power and complementary pieces they have, and the Badgers get them at an inopportune time. Saturday afternoon will be interesting to say the least.