The Browns face an uphill challenge in their quest to topple the Chiefs this weekend in the Divisional Round. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will obviously give the Browns a tough test and it’s more than reasonable to expect the Chiefs to win this game. The Browns are 10-point underdogs for a reason.
However, Browns fans shouldn’t enter this game with a complete sense of doom and gloom. An upset will be difficult, but Cleveland does have one major advantage over Kansas City in this game: their ability to run the ball.
Everything about the Browns run game is optimized for destruction. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive line coach Bill Callahan have done a masterful job constructing one of the best running games in the league. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Browns ranked fifth in the NFL in Points Earned (45.9) and seventh in yards per carry (4.7).
While the coaching staff has done a great job piecing the run game together, the players are the ones that drive the bus — and the Browns have a group of players that can pick up chunks of yards on the ground with ease. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are easily the best running back duo in the NFL and they have a road-grading offensive line.
Chubb and Hunt tortured defenses all season long. The Browns averaged 2.8 yards after contact according to Sports Info Solutions, ranking second in the NFL.
The Browns are known for their ability to run outside zone, running the seventh most stretch and off-tackle runs (178) according to Sports Info Solutions, but they can do a little bit of everything. That was on full display during their blowout Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They were able to run weak zone.
The Browns ran Power well, too.
They even hit their Duo runs effectively.
And they did all this against a well-regarded Steelers defense: 127 team rushing yards and two touchdowns on one of the better fronts in the league. The Steelers ranked 13th in expected points added per rushing play (-0.093) this season, according to Ben Baldwin of the Athletic.
The Chiefs don’t have a respectable rushing defense. In fact they, have one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire league. They ranked 27th in expected points added per rushing play (0.011) on defense this year. This is the weak spot that the Browns can and should be able to exploit.
This isn’t to say that the Browns will beat the Chiefs if Chubb and Hunt go off, but this is a favorable matchup that they can use to close the gap on gameday. The Browns have the talent on the offensive line to keep defensive tackle Chris Jones from wrecking their run game. Wyatt Teller played like an elite guard this season for the Browns and the rest of the offensive line has thrived under their first season with Callahan. Second team All-Pro guard Joel Bitonio is expected to return, too, after missing the Wild Card game due to COVID.
If the Browns are going to do the unthinkable and beat the Chiefs, it’s going to take a throwback, rugged approach. Run the ball effectively and often to grind out points — and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible.