In the lead-up to Sunday’s divisional round matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier had something interesting to say about Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.
“He’s willing, if you take something away, to check it down and keep the sticks moving, which makes it hard on the defense because those completions are not what we want. We want incompletions. We want to create negative plays, but he’s willing to take a four- or five-yard gain and [he’s] not always just trying to get the explosive.”
One wonders, given the recent trends with Buffalo’s offense, if Frazier was throwing a veiled hint at his own offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and quarterback Josh Allen.
The Bills’ offense has actually improved as the season has gone along — they were fourth in passing DVOA in the first half of the 2022 season, and they were fourth in the second half. They were 19th in rushing DVOA in the first half of the season, and they bumped that to ninth in the second half. Overall, they worked their way from fourth in offensive DVOA to third in the season’s second half, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
So, why are we worried about the boom-or-bust nature of Buffalo’s offense, and what it’s doing to Allen’s efficiency? From Week 11 through the wild-card round, Allen’s numbers are startlingly similar to Burrow’s, and nobody’s worried about Burrow. Allen completed 162 of 265 passes in that stretch for 1,901 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 96.1. Burrow completed 204 of 305 passes for 2,148 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.6.
Are we spending too much time looking at Buffalo’s narrow wild-card win over the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round? In that game, Allen completed 59% of his passes (23 of 39) for 352 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions (one of which wasn’t his fault), and a passer rating of 93.1. These numbers aren’t horrible per se, but all everybody is talking about now is Allen’s process, and the balance between explosive plays, and living to fight on the next down.
Perhaps we’re thinking about Allen’s fumble at the start of the second half, when defensive back Eric Rowe got him on a blitz, and Allen was trying to grown-man his way through it. That resulted in a fumble, and a touchdown return by defensive end Zach Sieler.
“I think it’s having a short memory and just trying to move on,” Allen said this week regarding getting past his issues with ball security. “Being the best quarterback I can be for the Bills. Obviously, wanting to make good decisions. Out of the whole game, I think I made one bad decision — it was the deep ball to [receiver] John [Brown, which was intercepted by Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard]. Obviously, we want to end every possession with the ball in our hands, whether it’s a touchdown, punting it away, or kicking a field goal. That’s our mindset. That’ll never change.
“There is a thin line between being aggressive and being a little bit reckless. So, getting back on the right side of that line. Being smart while not being conservative.”
It’s a very fine line when you have a quarterback capable of the kinds of plays Allen can pull off — he is an army of one in some instances, and you don’t want to shut that down completely. But there are also elements of Allen’s “WYLD STALLYNS” style of play that can bite the Bills in the wrong place from time to time.
“I think it’s very instinctual,” Allen said of his process. “It’s also dictated on the flow of the game. Sometimes, down and distance. But understanding just what kind of game it is. Last week, maybe getting too aggressive, and understanding with the lead, just forcing longer drives instead of helping their team get back in it. That’s what I really did. I credit our defense for stepping up, and guys making some plays on the offensive side of the ball.
“But we’re not going to get caught up in a couple bad plays we had last week. We’re going to focus on the good, and we’re going to learn from it. Our attention is on Cincinnati come Sunday at 3:00.”
Cincinnati’s attention will be on Allen, and the extent to which that defense is able to exploit Buffalo’s boom-or-bust offense. Bills head coach Sean McDermott knows all about the tiger he’s riding. Now, the key is to manage the risk.
#Bills Sean McDermott on Josh Allen: You don't want to put the handcuffs on someone… It's about calculated risk… It's something that you deal with every week. @wgrz
— Adam Benigni (@AdamBenigni) January 18, 2023
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).