We are through the first third of the season with each Big 12 team playing four games on the schedule, only one of these matchups came against a conference opponent. The top three teams in the standings with unblemished records are the Kansas Jayhawks, Oklahoma Sooners, and Texas Longhorns.
Kansas and Texas will face off in Austin on Saturday then next week Oklahoma and Texas collide in the Red River Rivalry. There is a strong chance that next week’s game could be a preview of the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 3 in Arlington, Texas.
As we set to kick off the second third of the season, the picture could become more clear on who is the class of the Big 12. Based on the Football Power Index from ESPN, the two departing members following the season are leading the charge based on the metrics.
Only the defending Big 12 champion, Kansas State Wildcats, and the team they beat last year have a greater than 1% chance to win the conference.
The UCF Knights, Cincinnati Bearcats, and Texas Tech Red Raiders are the next on the list. Tech’s case is interesting considering they still have a better percentage to win the Big 12 despite having one of the worst overall records in the conference. Apparently, the computers have no love for the Kansas Jayhawks who remain undefeated through four weeks.
Here is how ESPN breaks it down:
| Team | Projected Record | Win Out% | Win Conf% |
| Oklahoma (4-0,1-0) | 11-1 | 20.1 | 49.2 |
| Texas (4-0,1-0) | 11-2 | 12.4 | 38.7 |
| Kansas St (3-1,1-0) | 9-4 | 1.0 | 7.4 |
| UCF (3-1,0-1) | 8-4 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| TCU (3-1,1-0) | 7-5 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Cincinnati (2-2,0-1) | 7-5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Kansas (4-0,1-0) | 7-6 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| West Virginia (3-1,1-0) | 6-6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Texas Tech (1-3,0-1) | 5-7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| BYU (3-1,0-1) | 5-7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Iowa St (2-2,1-0) | 5-7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Oklahoma St (2-2,0-1) | 5-7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Houston (2-2,0-1) | 4-8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Baylor (1-3,0-1) | 3-9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
As the weeks roll on, we will continue to monitor what the analytics have to say about the final Big 12 race before the conference expands to 16 in 2024.