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This year’s NFL trade deadline is scheduled for Nov. 3, giving teams less than two weeks to cut a deal before everyone must hang up their phones and unplug the fax machines. That makes trade speculation welcome fodder for everyone within the league’s orbit, and the always-gambling New Orleans Saints are again at the center of guessing-games around the NFL.
The Athletic posited one big move for the black and gold: a trade with the 1-5 Houston Texans to acquire superstar pass rusher J.J. Watt, in exchange for a second round draft pick and a conditional third rounder in 2021. Here’s why they think Houston would make the trade after ex-coach/G.M. Bill O’Brien lost all their picks on his way out the door:
“The way things stand, the Texans don’t pick until the third round in the 2021 draft. Houston doesn’t have a lot of options to acquire significant draft capital. Watt presents one chip, though. He averaged eight games per season from 2016 to 2019 but is healthy this year and has played well. One option would be to pay Watt $17.5 million next year and hope he stays healthy for a team that contends for a Super Bowl. The other would be to sell high now and acquire much-needed draft capital. Given Watt’s age (31) and injury history, a first-round pick seems unlikely. But could the Texans get a second and a third from a needy team that’s ready to win now? Maybe.”
From New Orleans’ perspective: yes, adding Watt to a surging defense line would be nice to see. While he isn’t the same game-breaking player he once was after a series of injuries, Watt can still play. He leads the Texans with 21 quarterback pressures per Pro Football Focus, which would also lead the Saints. In New Orleans, he could make a formidable rotation along with starters Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson, plus Marcus Davenport.
And there are plenty of snaps to go around. In Week 5’s game with the Los Angeles Chargers (in which the Saints defense pressured quarterback Justin Herbert on 52.6% of his dropbacks, a season-high), Jordan and Hendrickson each played 50 or more snaps, with Davenport getting 21 plays in his first game back from injury. Backup Carl Granderson rounded out the group with a dozen reps of his own.
If Watt were added to the mix, Jordan and Hendrickson could each see slightly lighter workloads while Davenport absorbs Granderson’s opportunities. Watt would be worked in to keep everyone else fresh until he and Davenport are each comfortable (and healthy) enough in the scheme for the Saints to give all four players near-equal minutes.
And we saw how desperate the Saints were before the season to add another pass rusher with their pursuit of Jadeveon Clowney. If they were willing to include a second round draft pick and a player (possibly defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins) in their planned sign-and-trade to acquire Clowney, they’d likely be game for a less-complicated effort in picking up Watt.
Sure, the financial aspect of this is mind-boggling. Watt has a $17.5 million salary cap hit for 2021, the final year of his contract, and that would have to be reckoned with. but at this point in the season the Saints only be on the hook for about $10.01 million in Watt’s base salary for the remainder of 2020. That’s very manageable despite the Saints only having $7.89 million or so to spend right now. They can make it work.
And with maybe their last shot at a Super Bowl with Drew Brees on the line, it’s a price they just might be motivated to pay.
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