The Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) travel to the state capital Saturday for a noon ET kickoff against the Texas Longhorns (2-1) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Texas odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Texas Tech bounced back from a lackluster 28-22 Week 2 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 31.5-point favorite to easily handle Florida International 54-21 last week as a 20.5-point favorite.
Texas destroyed Rice 58-0 Saturday as a 26-point home favorite after being upset the week prior by Arkansas 40-21 as a 5.5-point road favorite. The Longhorns prevailed over the Red Raiders in last year’s meeting 63-56 in overtime.
Texas Tech at Texas odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:11 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas Tech +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Texas -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +9.5 (-110) | Texas -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Texas Tech at Texas odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 34, Texas 28
Money line
I like the Red Raiders plus points so much in this spot that I almost have to SPRINKLE on TEXAS TECH (+260). Texas has played a tougher schedule through three games, but Texas Tech has a much better EPA, success rate, points per play and yards per play differentials.
Furthermore, there’s just too much unconditional love in the market for a Texas football program that’s one of the most high-profile in the nation. Everyone is excited about first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian after what he did as the Alabama Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator in recent seasons.
However, ESPN college football guru ranked Texas 95th in returning production and the Longhorns have fewer returning starters than the Red Raiders. Also, Texas Tech junior transfer QB Tyler Shough has been awesome so far in Lubbock. Shough leads the Big 12 in passing yards and is second in passer efficiency rating.
Against the spread
Definitely BET TEXAS TECH +0.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of the money line. Texas failed to cover last season vs. Texas Tech as a 17.5-point road favorite in a 63-56 overtime victory.
The Longhorns had a former three-year starter in QB Sam Ehlinger under center who was a preseason Heisman Trophy contender and still Texas Tech almost pulled off an outright upset.
There’s flummox in Texas’s quarterback room this time around. Sarkisian benched QB Hudson Card for QB Casey Thompson during the Longhorns’ 40-21 loss to Arkansas. Thompson has better numbers thus far but the point is Texas shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown when it’s unsettled at quarterback.
We are getting significant “reverse line movement” in the betting market. For instance, nearly 60% of the action is on Texas according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, but the Longhorns have been steamed down from a 10-point favorite on the opener. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper especially when it’s a program as popular as Texas.
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Over/Under
PASS because my predicted score is nearly aligned with the market’s projection so there isn’t much value in be betting the total.
For what’s it worth, the last three Texas Tech-Texas meetings have gone Over the total with last year’s game soaring Over by nearly seven touchdowns. Additionally, Texas Tech is 1-2 O/U and Texas is 2-1 O/U.
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