The Baylor Bears (1-1) welcome the Texas State Bobcats (1-1) to McLane Stadium Saturday with kickoff set for noon ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Texas State at Baylor odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Sun Belt has had an impressive few weeks, and Texas State will look to keep that success alive after Marshall beat Notre Dame and Appalachian State beat Texas A&M.
The Bobcats lost their first game of the season, a 38-14 blowout against Nevada, and then beat FIU 41-12. They’re led by QB Layne Hatcher, but it was starting RB Calvin Hill who erupted against FIU, rushing for 195 yards.
Baylor is coming into this match needing to remain perfect the rest of the way for any playoff aspirations. It went to BYU and lost a hard-breaking game 26-20. It took down Albany 69-10 in its opener.
The Bears use their dominant run game to their advantage, averaging 205.5 yards in 2 games. Baylor is led by redshirt sophomore QB Blake Shapen.
Baylor is No. 19 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Texas State at Baylor odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Texas State +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Baylor -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas State +29.5 (-108) | Baylor -29.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Texas State at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 35, Texas State 13
Money line
PASS.
No value here. Carry on.
Against the spread
BET TEXAS STATE +29.5 (-108).
The Bobcats didn’t look great against Nevada, but Hill never truly was able to make an impact. He ran for 15 yards on 9 carries as opposed to getting 25 carries against FIU.
Playing from behind early, Hatcher was forced to throw 51 passes. Texas State hung with Nevada and was down 14-7 at half. The Bobcats have the personnel to keep this close, and the Sun Belt has typically rewarded betters in this game.
The Bears have a solid run defense, but its offense didn’t look electric against BYU. Baylor had just 137 passing yards and used 4 running backs. It is the definition of running back by committee.
It’ll want to keep this clock moving with its run game and topping a 30-point spread with a run-heavy attack against a competent opponent isn’t something I’m interested in backing. Taking TEXAS STATE +29.5 (-108).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 52.5 (-108).
Simply put — this is going to be a run-heavy game.
Hill is the star for the Bobcats, and Baylor has many key players in its run game. Shapen hasn’t looked good late, and he may have difficulty stringing together lengthy, scoring possessions.
The Bears’ defense, limiting the Cougars’ run game to just 83 yards, is good enough to assume they’ll tame the Bobcats. Couple it all together, and I’d prefer UNDER 52.5 (-108).
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