Texas Recruiting: Top in-state talent trending outside of Austin

In recent years the Texas Longhorns have been losing out on top talent. Is it a trend or just confirmation bias?

On Thursday night the Texas Longhorns watched as another one of the top recruits in the state decided to play elsewhere. The top prospect of the 2022 class, Quinn Ewers committed to play for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Which isn’t new territory for Ryan Day and company. They have made a living in the Lone Star State.

Five Star Texas Recruits since 2017

  • Ohio State-5
  • Texas-4
  • Texas A&M-4
  • Alabama-2

The Buckeyes continue to raid top talent from the state as the Longhorns and Aggies alike just watch. The Longhorns have been in a free fall when it comes to talent in the state. As Joel Klatt stated, “Texas has lost its luster.” Which couldn’t be any more of a fact. Early in the Tom Herman era, The Longhorns were putting together top 10 classes every year. As they have failed to deliver on the field, it has shown this year with the 2021 recruiting class. They have missed out on legacy players, a top talent they had committed for months, and now the top player in their 2022 cycle.

2021 Top players in Texas

The Longhorns have one commit in the top 20 players in the state of Texas. The No. 1 player is committed to Alabama (Tommy Brockermeyer). The No. 2 player is committed to Ohio State (Donovan Jackson). The No. 3 player is Ja’Tavion Sanders who is committed to Texas. They are still in the running for L.J. Johnson who ranks in at No. 7 but seems like he is leaning towards the Aggies.

Top 20 Texas Recruits 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Texas 1 12 3 5 1
A&M 1 4 7 3 4
OU 2 1 3 2 6
Alabama 1 1 1 2 2
LSU 3 0 1 1 3
Ohio State 3 0 1 1 1
  • Texas- 22 (4.4/year)
  • A&M- 19 (3.8/year)
  • OU- 14 (2.8/year)
  • Alabama- 7 (1.4/year)
  • LSU- 8 (2/year)
  • Ohio State- 6 (1.2/year)

When you first look at the numbers and see the Texas Longhorns leading with 4.4 it doesn’t look so bad. That number is vastly skewed by the 2018 recruiting year that landed them 12 of the top 20. Outside of that one cycle, the Longhorns average just 2.5 of the top 20 in the state. The biggest two rivals to the Longhorns have out recruited the Longhorns with their top talent in the state.

The Longhorns 2017 class was started by Charlie Strong and Herman had to finish it. He was hired on Nov. 26 of 2016, just two weeks before the early signing period was set to take place. The 2018 season was more or less his. He arrived in plenty of time to get that class together. After seeing three recruiting cycles after 2018, it seems that year was an aberration.

Since 2018, the Longhorns are currently third in terms of landing Texas talent. Given they are getting beat at home in recruiting, and getting beat on the field it doesn’t leave a lot of hope for the Horns.

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