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The Texas Rangers (37-43) and Baltimore Orioles (50-30) open a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Teams split 3-3 in 2023 regular season; Rangers won 3-0 in 2023 ALDS
The Rangers were recently swept in a 3-game road series at the Milwaukee Brewers. Texas had won 4 straight, including back-to-back shutout wins before the skid. The Under is 4-2-1 across the past 7 contests for the Rangers, and is 5-3 in the past 8 tries on the road.
The Orioles halted a 5-game skid with a 4-2 win vs. the Cleveland Guardians Wednesday, salvaging at least one victory after dropping the first 2 in the series. The Under and Over has alternated in each of the past 6 games, with the total going Under (8.5) Wednesday.
Despite Wednesday’s win, the Orioles are just 3-4 in the past 7 games at home, while the Over has a slight 3-2-2 mark in that 7-game span.
Rangers at Orioles projected starters
RHP Jon Gray vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Gray (3-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 14th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-0 home victory vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 0-1, 2.20 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .241 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 36 K in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Orioles: 2-2, 2.91 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.7 K/9 in 4 starts
Burnes (8-3, 2.35 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 99 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 5 K in 5-1 loss at Houston Astros Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 4-1, 1.84 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.10 WHIP, .225 OBA, 4 HR, 14 BB, 56 K in 9 starts
- Never faced Rangers before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rangers at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:59 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Orioles -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-110) | Orioles -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Rangers at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 3, Rangers 2
Moneyline
The Orioles (-225) will cost 2.25 times your potential return, and that’s quite risky in what should be a close pitcher’s duel in this series opener against the defending champion Rangers (+180).
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The RANGERS +1.5 (-110) are a solid value on the run line as underdogs.
Texas is coming off getting swept in 3 games in Milwaukee, so there is some risk here. However, the pitching will keep the Rangers in the game, as they’ve allowed just 20 runs in the past 7 outings, or 2.9 runs per game (RPG).
The Orioles won against Cleveland Wednesday, but they’re still just 1-5 in the past 6 games, and just 1-3 on the run line in the past 4 as favorites.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-115) is the best play on the board in Thursday’s battle in Charm City.
The Under is 3-2 in the past 5 games for the O’s, and the offense is averaging just 3.2 RPG in the span. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the past 6 home starts for Burnes.
For the Rangers, the Under has hit at a 4-2-1 clip in the past 7 outings, while going 5-3 in the past 8 road contests. The Under is also 6-1 in Gray’s previous 7 starting assignments.
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