There is no reason Texas shouldn’t blow Louisiana Monroe out in their Week 1 matchup, and that is clearly not the game that Longhorns fans should be stressing over. What’s worrisome is the Week 2 matchup against Alabama, who will be on a revenge tour to avenge their championship loss.
This past season, Texas did not handle adversity well at all, and were embarrassed Week 2 against a good Arkansas team. Something similar happening in 2022 would be devastating for a team who is trying to build their confidence back up. It doesn’t help that the most experienced quarterback on the roster for Texas is Hudson Card, who was pulled in that Arkansas loss after looking as rattled as they come.
If Ewers or Card can play a solid game, and the defense can slow down Alabama this game may be a morale victory if Texas can keep it close considering how young they will be.
This would put Texas at 1-1 with a tough next six games. The schedule then goes as follows:
- UTSA
- @ Texas Tech
- West Virginia
- Oklahoma (neutral site)
- Iowa State
- @ Oklahoma State
This stretch of the season will dictate how this team does, as there is a possibility that four of these games are against a ranked team and an early slide can lead to another long losing streak. The best case scenario for this stretch would obviously be to make it a clean sweep and go 6-0, which should not be too much to ask for considering that most of these teams should have a down year due to roster fluctuation.
However, similar to last season, this middle of the season stretch can easily kill any postseason hopes. The worst case scenario would be getting upset by Texas Tech who has been generating some hype surrounding their new coach, and then following that up with losing three out of the next four. It is very possible Texas goes through this stretch and ends up with a 2-4 record, which would have them sitting at 3-5 on the year.
This would mean that they have to win three out of their next four to be bowl eligible, which again means another disappointing season that features Texas fighting for a bowl birth. The next stretch will be slightly easier, but based on how this team reacted in 2021 to a few losses, it is fair to imagine the hits keep coming.
The next stretch goes as follows:
- @ Kansas State
- TCU
- @ Kansas
- Baylor
At one point, Texas fans were able to look at a stretch like this and say to themselves that this would be a 4-0 stretch no problem. However, those days are long gone as the competition in the Big 12 has only gotten better. Based on each of the teams in the stretch, there could be two losses here with TCU and Baylor.
The best case scenario for this stretch that seems reasonable is a 3-1 record with the loss coming at the hands of Baylor who won the Big 12 this past season, and is returning a lot of key players. The worst case is Texas falls on their face again, and loses two or even three of these games thus putting Texas at a second straight season of missing a bowl game.
Heads would surely begin to roll, and Sarkisian would either be on the hottest seat possible or relieved of his duties.
Ultimately this is the worst case scenario, meaning that if this were to happen the school and program would be in turmoil again. I highly doubt that the Longhorns aren’t at the very least bowl eligible, but at the same time we have learned not to expect too much from Texas.