Texas Football: Where the Longhorns rank in advanced analytics

Breaking down where the Texas Longhorns rank among the country in Expected Points over Average (EPA)? Plus a look at explosive plays.

The Texas offense on early downs averages 5.8 yards per play. Early downs are essentially first and second down. That ranks 68th in the country and they have a success rate of 36.9% which is 77th in the country. On those early downs Mike Yurcich calls a run play on 51.4% of those opportunities, that breaks down to 43rd in the country.

Unlike some numbers, rush rate means a lower number is better. EPA models have shown the path to success is throwing the ball on first to set up shorter down and distances to keep sustained drives.

Category Stat Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Yards Per Play 5.8 4th 68th
Success Rate 36.9% 4th 77th
Rush Rate 51.4% 4th 43rd
Total EPA -0.011 3rd 57th
Rush EPA -0.100 4th 69th

In most of these categories the Oklahoma Sooners, Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma State Cowboys are ahead of them in each. These are also the top four teams in the conference trying to make their way to the Big 12 Championship. So once again the rankings confirm what we see on the field. Next we take a look at the third down.

Category Stat Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Pass EPA 0.084 2nd 46th
First Down % 81.6% 4th 47th
Success Rate 40.2% 3rd 62nd
Total EPA 0.075 6th 73rd
3rd down % 20.5% 7th 57th
Avg Distance 7.4 4th 82nd

The third down percentage breaks down the number of plays that occur on third down, the lower the number the better. The Longhorns are one of the more efficient teams on third down when throwing the football. Despite the fact that Sam Ehlinger has regressed as of late. For what reason, there are a variety of factors and theories as to why that is. The most prevalent being that he is injured.

As far as the explosive plays, we break down how the Longhorns rank among each team.

Team 10+ 20+ 30+ 40+
Oklahoma 150 46 20 10
West Virginia 126 40 22 4
Texas Tech 113 30 11 8
Texas 109 38 19 13
Iowa State 107 32 15 9
Texas Christian 96 27 16 7
Oklahoma State 92 29 14 6
Baylor 78 21 7 2
Kansas State 70 33 15 9
Kansas 68 16 6 3