Recently Longhorns Wire dove into the statistical rankings for Texas this year. Now we use the advanced statistical model known as EPA. It stands for Expected Points over Average. Much like the baseball stat WAR (wins above replacement). While that measures an individuals contribution to the team, EPA is more of measuring how efficient the entire team as a whole. It breaks down into categories (rush, pass, success rate, overall EPA).
These models use historical scoring odds to estimate the value of each spot on the field based on down and distance. If a team runs a play that improves its chances of scoring next, that’s worth positive EPA. Big plays—such as a 40-yard completion or a conversion on 3rd and long—are worth more EPA than smaller ones, like a 5 yard gain on first down.
EPA Margin
| Team | Margin | Rank |
| Oklahoma | 0.129 | 16 |
| Oklahoma State | 0.063 | 34 |
| West Virginia | 0.054 | 36 |
| Iowa State | 0.049 | 37 |
| Texas | 0.037 | 45 |
| Baylor | -0.015 | 72 |
| Kansas State | -0.017 | 73 |
| Texas Christian | -0.024 | 78 |
| Texas Tech | -0.062 | 92 |
| Kansas | -0.271 | 122 |
Texas Offense EPA Ranks
| Category | Number | Big 12 Rank | Overall Rank |
| Offensive EPA | 0.014 | 3rd | 64th |
| Play success rate | 38.2% | 4th | 80th |
| Rush EPA | -0.105 | 6th | 91st |
| Pass EPA | 0.120 | 2nd | 43rd |
Texas Defense EPA Ranks
| Category | Number | Big 12 Rank | Overall Rank |
| Defensive EPA | -0.064 | 5th | 35th |
| Success Rate | 41.9% | 8th | 77th |
| Rush EPA | -0.239 | 1st | 13th |
| Pass EPA | 0.072 | 8th | 65th |
The Texas Longhorns rush defense has been one of the better aspects of the defense as of late. The EPA rankings confirm what we have seen on the field as of late. They will face the 20th most efficient run teams in the Iowa State Cyclones on Nov. 27. They average 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. The Longhorns counter with a defense that allows 3.9 which is 15th in the country.
Next we dive into situational statistics