Texas has lofty expectations to live up to in 2023.
Many feel naming the Longhorns as the favorite for the Big 12 title this season is warranted. The talented and experienced roster under the same primary coaching staff for three seasons is worthy enough of that prediction.
Some national media networks believe Texas could even sneak into the College Football Playoff this season, whether they win the Big 12 or not. This likely won’t happen if Texas loses to Alabama in Week 2, but there is nevertheless a clear path for the Longhorns to reach the playoff for the first time.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich recently listed 17 teams who could reach the CFP this season. Texas was listed after the typical powerhouse programs such as Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama.
Here’s Dinich’s reasoning and questions regarding Texas’ path to the playoff.
Agree or disagree with FPI prediction of 34.2% chance to make playoff: Disagree. This seems like overconfidence in a team that has yet to prove it’s the best in the Big 12 and travels to Tuscaloosa in Week 2. If Texas doesn’t beat Alabama, it’s going to be under pressure to win out — which seems unlikely, leaving a two-loss Texas outside the top four.
Toughest test: Sept. 9 at Alabama. There simply isn’t another opponent on the Longhorns’ schedule as good as the Tide. Last year, the Texas defense fizzled in the fourth quarter and Alabama kicked a go-ahead field goal with 10 seconds left to win 20-19.
What the committee will like: A win against Bama. If Texas beats the Tide, it immediately legitimizes its CFP hopes and starts to build its case for a top-four finish, even without winning the Big 12. Texas could ultimately have a win over the SEC champ (or just the SEC West winner) which would bolster its résumé if it winds up in a debate with another comparable team. Texas could run the table but lose a close game in the Big 12 championship, opening the possibility of the Longhorns finishing in the top four with Alabama or instead of the Tide because of the head-to-head result, depending on how Alabama finishes.
What the committee won’t like: The new-look Big 12. The conference has added BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF, and Texas is facing BYU and Houston this year. While the newcomers might play their way into the CFP top 25, wins against these new Big 12 opponents aren’t going to resonate much more than they did without the Power 5 label.
It’s no shock that the Longhorns could still reach their Big 12 title goals with a loss to Alabama, but the odds of them making the CFP would diminish significantly.
One thing is for certain: If Texas does not at least reach the Big 12 Championship game, many will view the season as a disappointment.
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