The Houston Texans actively gave away the No. 1 overall selection in the 2023 NFL draft with a 32-31 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Chicago Bears lost to the Minnesota Vikings and finished with a 3-14 record, nullifying the tiebreaker they had over the Texans, who finished 3-13-1. Ties count as half-wins, so, effectively, Houston had 3.5 wins to the Bears’ 3.0.
According to Jonathan Jones from CBS Sports, the Bears, who have a franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, are looking to take advantage of the quarterback neediness of the Texans, Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 overall), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7 overall), and Carolina Panthers (No. 9 overall).
Here’s how one prominent league source sees it: the Bears deal the top pick to the Texans, who are currently selecting at No. 2 overall. The Texans don’t want to get leapfrogged for their top pick and, armed with a dozen picks in this year’s draft plus two firsts in next year’s draft, they’ll be able to give Bears GM Ryan Poles sufficient compensation to get their quarterback of the future.
In some regard, the Bears may be in an even better position to make a deal at No. 2. The Texans would have taken their top quarterback, and if teams feel there are two difference-makers at QB for the 2023 season, they’ll want to get on the phone with Chicago before someone else does.
Essentially, Chicago gets two bites at the apple.
For the Texans, they don’t need to play the game.
Houston needs their twin first-rounders in this year’s draft and next year’s draft to get high caliber talent to return to playoff contention. Giving up those picks for a quarterback hampers that ability.
Taking the first quarterback in a draft isn’t always what it is cracked up to be. For every Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Andrew Luck, there lies Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, and E.J. Manuel.
Where the Texans are going to “win” is their scouting, not necessarily their placement.
Oftentimes a draft has a decent crop of quarterbacks and most teams can get their guy — kind of like 2020. Every team that took a first-round quarterback has to feel secure about the direction under center.
What is fascinating is that the No. 1 overall pick would not even have this value if the Texans had earned it outright. Houston would be picking a quarterback off the top, and the draft order would carry on — probably with the Bears using the No. 2 pick as is and not trying to flip it.
The Bears are shrewd to get as much value as possible from the top pick. Let the Colts get caught up in that bidding war while the Texans take the best quarterback while also being able to significantly upgrade the roster.
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