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The No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers (1-0) head to the KFC Yum! Center to face the Louisville Cardinals (1-0) Saturday at noon ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tennessee vs. Louisville odds as we make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Volunteers kicked off their season with an 80-64 victory over Gardner-Webb Monday. Tennessee led by as many as 27 points, but fell short of covering as a 27.5-point favorite. Senior G Chaz Lanier led the scoring with 18 points, hitting 4 of 6 shots from 3-point range. The game also went over the 142-point total.
The Cardinals opened their season with a dominant 93-45 win over Morehead State, easily covering as 22-point favorites. Louisville controlled the paint, outscoring the Eagles 42-14 inside. Senior F Kasean Pryor came off the bench to deliver 18 points and 12 rebounds. The game also stayed under the 148-point total.
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Tennessee at Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tennessee -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Louisville +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Tennessee -1.5 (-105) | Louisville +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Tennessee at Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Tennessee 75, Louisville 70
Moneyline
PASS.
Louisville is still rebuilding, while Tennessee (-120) is an established program under Rick Barnes. I’m taking the Volunteers to cover the small spread in this road matchup, instead of laying the juice on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET TENNESSEE -1.5 (-105).
In a refreshing early-season matchup, Tennessee and Louisville — 2 major programs — face off Saturday, breaking the usual “Power 5 vs. mid-major” pattern. This showdown offers a great chance to gauge both teams as they find their identity with fresh rosters.
The narrow 1.5-point spread favors No. 12 Tennessee, highlighting the respect Louisville and new coach Pat Kelsey are earning. Tennessee holds the edge with a seasoned point guard who brings stability, particularly on the road, and it showcased strong shooting hitting 51% from the field in its opener.
Louisville, while impressive in its opener, dominated an overhauled Morehead State squad, so it’s still finding its rhythm.
Tennessee’s established lineup makes it the safer pick, even on the road.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 153.5 (-115).
Barnes’ teams are known for tough, in-your-face defense, ranking 3rd nationally last season by allowing just 90.2 points per 100 possessions. While his roster has changed, his defensive strategy likely hasn’t.
On the other hand, Kelsey’s high-paced offense, showcased at College of Charleston, contrasts Barnes’ style. Despite both teams scoring well in their season openers, the competitive edge here is narrower. With both teams showing strong defensive performances in their first games, I’m backing the Under for a tight, early-season battle.
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