The TCU Horned Frogs (2-2, 0-1 in Big XII) stop by Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock for a conference showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1, 1-1) Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the TCU vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Texas Tech returns home after two straight Big XII road games. First, the Red Raiders were hammered 70-35 at the No. 23 Texas Longhorns in Week 4 then upset the West Virginia Mountaineers 23-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 5. Texas Tech is 3-2 ATS and has gone Under the total in three of its five games.
TCU just lost a nail-biter to Texas 32-27 as 4-point home underdogs Oct. 2, following a 42-34 home loss to the No. 24 SMU Mustangs as 8-point favorites. The Horned Frogs are just 0-3-1 ATS and 2-2 Over/Under thus far. TCU has won and covered back-to-back games against Texas Tech.
TCU at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: TCU -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Texas Tech +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU -1.5 (-112) | Texas Tech +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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TCU at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 31, TCU 27
Money line
GIMME TEXAS TECH (+102) for 1.25 units because this feels like the wrong team is favored.
My guess as to why TCU has been bet through zero and up to a slight favorite since this game opened is Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson is one of the winningest active coaches in college football.
Also, the market might be using each teams’ loss to Texas as a measuring stick. I.e. since TCU nearly covered at home against Texas and Texas Tech got smoked by five touchdowns so the market assumes the Horned Frogs are the better team.
However, that’s not how it works. Aside from that one stinker, Texas Tech has played good football this season. The Red Raiders have higher predicted points added (PPA), yards per play and Havoc rate differentials in non-garbage time than the Horned Frogs.
Furthermore, Texas Tech has a higher net drive efficiency, net points per drive and net points per play than TCU, according to Football Outsiders. On top of that, TCU actually has a minus-0.8 yards per play net and has played a weaker strength of schedule.
Against the spread
PASS and stick with the money line since Texas Tech +1.5 (-108) is 10 cents on the dollar pricier and doesn’t offer much insurance, obviously.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 61.5 (-115) there’s a “pros vs. joe’s” scenario in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, roughly 85% of the money is on the Under whereas nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Over.
Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. But, since I don’t have a strong handicap on the TCU-Texas Tech total, I’ll stay away.
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