The TCU Horned Frogs (4-5, 2-4 in Big XII) visit the No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1, 5-1) for a Big XII game at Boone Pickens Stadium Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the TCU vs. Oklahoma State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
TCU broke its three-game losing skid by upsetting the No. 18 Baylor Bears 30-28 as 7.5-point home underdogs in what was TCU’s first game in the former head coach post-Gary Patterson era.
The Horned Frogs moved to 2-6-1 ATS and 5-4 O/U with the victory and have played the 24th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Oklahoma State clobbered its second straight opponent after beating the West Virginia Mountaineers 24-3 in Week 10. The Cowboys have by far the best defense in the Big XII. Oklahoma State is 7-2 ATS and 2-6-1 O/U with the 23rd-hardest schedule, according to Sagarin.
TCU upset Oklahoma State in last year’s meeting 29-22 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Also, these teams have split the last six meetings, both outright and ATS.
TCU at Oklahoma State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
- Money line: TCU +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Oklahoma State -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +11.5 (-108) | Oklahoma State -11.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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TCU at Oklahoma State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Oklahoma State 34, TCU 14
Money line
PASS because even though the Cowboys should win handily, Oklahoma State (-500) is too far out of my price range for any favorite in a conference game.
Also, Oklahoma State is too expensive to add in a money line parlay or as a teaser leg.
Against the spread
Despite this being a double-digit spread, there’s more value in OKLAHOMA STATE -11.5 (-112) than the underdog in this spot.
The reason is TCU hasn’t faced a defense in the same neighborhood as Oklahoma State’s. For instance, the Cowboys are ranked sixth in the nation in defensive predicted points added (PPA).
On the other hand, the best defense TCU has played this season was West Virginia who rank 64th in defensive PPA. Well, TCU scored 17 points in that game so the Horned Frogs will get shut down Saturday.
Furthermore, TCU started freshman QB Chandler Morris over junior QB Max Duggan and Morris was awesome.
However, facing this world-beating Oklahoma State defense is another story. I think Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy will make Morris’s life difficult this week. In fact, a derivative you can play in this contest would be UNDER 20.5 TCU TEAM TOTAL (-110).
As for the game, GIMME OKLAHOMA STATE -11.5 (-112).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 54.5 (-110) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer Oklahoma State laying the points than the total in this game.
That said, TCU’s offense won’t do much vs. Oklahoma State’s defense and the Cowboys have only gone Over the total twice this season for a reason. That reason is Oklahoma State is also not very efficient on offense.
But, a vast majority of the market is on the Under in TCU-Oklahoma State (according to Pregame.com) and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting.
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