NFL 2021 is upon us with the first 16 of a record 272 games in the books to kick off the league’s longest-ever regular season.
We witnessed the typical mix of expected (Patrick Mahomes rallying the Kansas City Chiefs from a double-digit deficit to a win), unexpected (the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles completely dominating the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, as road underdogs), and the downright strange (reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers laying a 3-point egg in a 35-point neutral-site beatdown at the hands of Jameis Winston and the temporarily displaced New Orleans Saints).
Fantasy football-wise, there were the usual Week 1 standouts who came out of nowhere to blow up on benches or who are now taunting and tempting fanasy general managers from the waiver wire.
But which of these opening-week standouts are flash-in the-pan fool’s gold (recall Mitchell Trubisky, Malcolm Brown and Darius Slayton from Week 1 a season ago), and which are the real deal (Robby Anderson and Logan Thomas, lightly regarded in 2020 drafts, also had big opening weeks a year ago)?
Here’s the best-guess fantasy forecast for 10 of the surprise standouts (going by relative preseason ADPs) of the opening weekend and whether we’re buying in or simply bypassing …
Saints QB Jameis Winston
Fantasy position rank (Huddle PPR scoring): 6th with 31.1 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Buying.
Sure, we all know that throwing a touchdown pass on every fourth attempt as Winston did Sunday (5 TDs, 20 attempts) is far from sustainable, but Sean Payton’s offensive system is.
It’s a system that established Drew Brees as a locked-in top 10 fantasy option for nearly 15 seasons, and Winston — with his superior deep-passing ability compared to the twilight-era Brees and better mobility (he rushed for 37 yards Sunday) — has the skills to thrive in this offense.
That’s as long as Winston can avoid the crippling interception clusters that ended his starting run in Tampa. Any sort of relapse will be sure to have Payton reconsidering and inserting his longtime favorite Taysom Hill for more snaps.
There also is a question about the talent level of the Saints’ current collection of pass-catchers outside of super-stud RB Alvin Kamara. But if wideouts Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway, Kenny Stills and Tre’Quan Smith and tight ends Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman can outperform expectations and hold things together until No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas (hopefully) is ready to return from injury in a month or so, Winston has definite QB1 staying power.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff
Fantasy position rank: 8th with 30.3 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Bypassing — at least in standard-size, one-quarterback leagues.
No quarterback had more garbage-time production in Week 1 than Goff, who attempted 57 passes (trailing only Dak Prescott’s 58 on Thursday) as the Lions were trailing by multiple touchdowns from the second quarter on Sunday against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.
Detroit’s new starter did complete two-thirds of those attempts for 338 yards a trio of TDs and even a pair of two-point conversions, but Goff averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt with 20 of his 56 targets going to running backs. So it was volume-driven production to be sure.
And, hey, we know with the Lions’ overall talent level that Goff is sure to have plenty of opportunity to rack up garbage-time stats, but it’s certainly not something you want to rely on from your starting QB in 10- to 14-team leagues — especially given the Lions’ arguably league-worst wide receiver corps.
Houston Texans QB Tyrod Taylor
Fantasy position rank: 12th with 26.6 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Buying in two-QB leagues or as a fall-back option if you waited on QB and are already nervous about your starter in your single-quarterback league.
Unlike Goff, Taylor produced the majority of his QB1 stats (21-of-33 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and 4-40 rushing) with his team leading by multiple scores Sunday against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars.
Taylor isn’t spectacular, but he’s a steady veteran hand who’s good at avoiding turnovers. He also offers upside with his legs as his 40 yards rushing Sunday on 10 attempts ranked fourth among QBs for the opening weekend.
Lions RB Jamaal Williams
Fantasy position rank: Tied for 2nd with 25.0 PPR points
Buying or bypassing? Buying — as running back depth or as a flex position starting option in 12-team-or-larger leagues.
As we discussed above with Goff’s garbage-time numbers, Williams isn’t going to see nine targets (and eight receptions) per week.
But he is going to be involved in the Lions’ offense as the team’s coaches promised as much on several occasions during the offseason. On Sunday against the Niners, Williams had 17 touches to lead back D’Andre Swift’s 19 and finished with 0.6 more PPR points thanks to his superior yards-per-carry average (6.0-3.5) while logging only two fewer rushing attempts (11-9).
And given Swift’s health question marks even as a second-year back, Williams is at the ready to assume the every-down RB duties in the Motor City.
Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon
Fantasy position rank: 7th with 20.8 fantasy points.
Buying or bypassing? Buying.
A number of fantasy pundits and GMs were ready to cast Gordon aside this offseason when the Broncos moved up in the second round to draft RB Javonte Williams in late April.
And while the team loves the hard-running Williams — he had three more rushing attempts (14-11) than his veteran teammate in Sunday’s win over the New York Giants — we saw the old MGIII rise to the occasion in the Meadowlands, displaying more explosiveness (a game-sealing 70-yard TD burst in the fourth quarter) and getting more work in the passing game (catching all three of his targets for 17 yards while Williams had one catch on one target for a minus-4 yards).
The rookie is certainly going to stay involved and could easily command roughly 50 percent of the Denver RB touches, but the talented Gordon was simply written off too soon and figures to have solid RB2/flex appeal for the foreseeable future.
San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell
Fantasy position rank: 13th with 16.4 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Buying — mainly due to the RB-friendly system he plays in — but resist the temptation to overpay.
With third-round rookie RB Trey Sermon a surprise, healthy scratch and veteran starting back Raheem Mostert going down early in Sunday’s game with a knee — and yet another — injury that is expected to sideline him for the first half of the season, Mitchell was suddenly handed the valuable keys as the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan attack.
The rookie sixth-round pick took the gig and ran with it, accounting for 19 of the team’s 22 RB carries and rushing for 104 yards, including a 38-yard scoring burst in the second quarter.
As impressive as the debut was, Shanahan’s running back master plan in any given week remains as unpredictable as ever, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sermon — who was clearly sent a message with his Week 1 inactive designation — getting the bulk of the work in Week 2 or JaMychal Hasty, who received a pair of touches Sunday — suddenly elevated into the lead role to see what he can do.
That said, the most likely Niners backfield scenario is that Mitchell has earned another turn as the team’s lead back and that makes the rookie a must pick-up in almost all leagues.
Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk
Fantasy position rank: 10th with 24.0 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Buying — but only as a deeper-league bench stash.
Three other Arizona wideouts (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore) received as many targets (five) as Kirk did in Sunday’s surprise thrashing of the host Tennessee Titans, but none were more efficient than Kirk, who reeled in all five for 70 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The Cards are in need of a consistently productive pass-catcher to emerge opposite the stud WR1 Hopkins, but Kirk has so far shown only WR2 flashes in his boom-or-bust three seasons. In 2020, for example, he had a midseason run of three straight 20-point-plus games, but he topped 10 PPR points in only three of his 11 other contests on the season.
Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams
Fantasy position rank: 14th with 22.2 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Intriguing as always but just renting for now.
Speaking of boom-or-bust wide receivers, the Bolts’ Williams is even more mercurial. In 2020, he had four games with at least 17.1 PPR points, but he also had seven contests with 5.8 or fewer.
Perhaps it’s just a simple matter of volume.
On Sunday against host Washington, Williams did attract double-digit targets (12) — only one fewer than WR1 Keenan Allen — for only the fourth time in 57 career games and turned those into a career-high eight catches for 82 yards and a TD in the Chargers’ 20-16 win.
The Bolts most certainly have room for another productive pass-catcher to emerge with talented second-year QB Justin Herbert slinging the rock, so perhaps the fifth season will be the charm for Williams, who has never finished a season ranked among the top-30 PPR wideouts.
Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski
Fantasy position rank: 1st with 29.0 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? It’s Gronk — and the position is tight end — so we’re definitely in.
Tom Brady threw 50 passes in the Bucs’ 31-29 season-opening win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, and only WR Chris Godwin (14) was targeted more times than Robert James Gronkowski’s eight. No Tampa pass-catcher was more efficient, though, as the veteran tight end caught all eight for 90 yards and two TDs.
That’s certainly not going to be the case every week — volume or efficiency wise — given the width and depth of the Bucs’ pass-catching corps. But at tight end — where TDs arguably have more relative value than any of the other three main fantasy positions — the 6-foot-6, 270-pound Gronk is a standout among all-time standouts with 102 career regular season and playoff TD grabs.
So with the fantasy position as shallow as ever — and even with Gronkowski having turned 32 in May — those who missed out on the elite TE1s should all be making a waiver claim if he’s available.
Saints TE Juwan Johnson
Fantasy position rank: 5th with 17.1 fantasy points
Buying or bypassing? Speculatively buying, unless you have one of the elite TE1s.
As aforementioned, the Bucs only threw 20 passes Sunday — and Johnson, the second-year undrafted free agent, was only targeted three times — but he caught all three for 21 yards and, most importantly, two TDs.
Surely that will earn the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Johnson more snaps and looks in a passing offense in need of productive pass-catchers with the WR1 Thomas out. And, sorry for repetition, but those also are in short supply at the shallow fantasy tight end position.
Don’t overspend, but pick up Johnson now if you have a spare bench spot and see what develops.