The Tampa Bay Rays (57-29) and Seattle Mariners (39-42) close out a 3-game set Sunday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
We cashed 2 of the 3 bets here Friday night as Tampa took it to Seattle 15-4. The Under definitely did not cash in that one, but we cashed on the Rays’ ML and a +105 for Shane McClanahan‘s Under on K’s. The Rays were upended 8-3 on Saturday night. They’re now 6-4 in the last 10 and 10-10 in the last 20.
The M’s scored 6 runs in the 6th-8th innings Saturday to take the victory. They outlasted Tyler Glasnow, who struck out 11 over 5 2/3 IP. SS J.P. Crawford and OF Julio Rodriguez combined for 6 hits and 3 RBIs Saturday. The M’s are just 4-6, 9-11 and 13-17 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games and sit 10 games out in the AL West.
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Rays at Mariners projected starters
RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Bradley (5-4, 4.58 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 53 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in Tuesday’s 8-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks
- Better on the road: 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA in 6 starts vs. 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA in 5 home starts
- Hasn’t faced Mariners
Castillo (5-6, 2.86 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 94 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in Monday’s 8-4 win against the Washington Nationals
- 1 career start vs. Tampa last season: 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K and no-decision in 2-1 win
Rays at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Rays 4
Moneyline
Castillo has been superb this season, though his record doesn’t show it. He’ll have a say in the Cy Young voting before season’s end. The right-hander has a 2.32 ERA and 50 K’s in 42 2/3 IP over his last 7 starts. He has been victimized by the long ball, though, with 7 HRs allowed in his last 4 starts. The weather should assist him Sunday.
Take the MARINERS -125.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rays are too expensive for a run of insurance, and Seattle is just 18-25 on the RL at home this season. So we’re going to PASS here.
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Over/Under
Both teams are 7-3 O/U in the last 10. It’s projected to be a 70-degree day with an 8-mph gust coming in from left-center. The Over has cashed in both games of the series and in 4 of the last 5. We saw 19 runs Friday and 11 Saturday. With the wind blowing in, I don’t think runs will be too crazy, but there’s enough data here to LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120).
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