The Tampa Bay Rays (56-28) and Seattle Mariners (38-41) open up a 3-game set Friday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Tampa Bay won the season series 5-2 last year
Tampa continues chugging along. The Rays took 2 of 3 games from the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks to start the week and have won 5 of their last 8 games. They’re 18-12 over the last 30 and the AL East is starting to tighten up a bit as the Baltimore Orioles are within 5 1/2 games. Tampa Bay is a beatable 22-18 on the road.
The Mariners had Thursday off, and they needed the reset after losing 4 of the last 5 games. They are just 13-17 over the last 30 games. Seattle is just 5-10 against the AL East. The M’s are better at home though, at 22-19 at T-Mobile Park while just 16-22 on the road.
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Rays at Mariners projected starters
LHP Shane McClanahan vs. RHP Bryce Miller
McClanahan (11-1, 2.23 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 93 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K vs. the Kansas City Royals on June 22 — left start due to back tightness
- 2 career starts vs. Mariners: 1-0, 2.38 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 13 K across 11 1/3 IP
Miller (5-3, 3.88 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over 55 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K Saturday against Baltimore Orioles
- Much better at home: 4-1, 3.03 ERA, 0.84 WHIP vs. 1-2, 4.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP on the road
Rays at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:42 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Mariners 2
Moneyline
There is some concern about McClanahan’s balky back, but he leads MLB with a 2.23 ERA for a reason. The strange thing is his 3.4 BB/9 is way up from last season’s 2.1 mark, and his K/9 is down to 9.7 from 10.5 last year. So he’s experiencing more traffic on the bases, but it has yet to affect him.
The RAYS (-125) are at a good price in this matchup.
Run line/Against the spread
Tampa is 20-20 on the RL on the road, and Seattle is 17-24 on the RL at home. There have been a ton of 1-run games between the teams – 6 of the last 8. So taking Tampa here is dangerous. PASS.
I’ll take a chance on McClanahan’s K’s instead. As mentioned, his K-rate is down, and he’s coming off a back issue. He also hasn’t struck out 7 or more batters in 4 straight starts. He struck out 5 Mariners the last time he faced them. Considering you can get this at plus money, I’ll take SHANE MCCLANAHAN UNDER 6.5 K’S (+105).
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Over/Under
The Over is 4-5-1 over the last 10 games between the teams. Tampa is 7-3 O/U over the last 10, and Seattle is 5-5. Weather should aid pitchers Friday on a 75-degree day with a 9-mph gust coming in from left-center field.
It’s absolutely possible the Over hits with McClanahan’s back issues making his longevity a question mark, but I’m feeling UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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