Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (78-48) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-62) wrap up their two-game interleague series Wednesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Rays LHP Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 4.57 ERA) makes his 18th start and 24th appearance of the year. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 124 IP.

  • In his lone start since coming off the COVID-19 injured list, Yarbrough allowed 1 hit over 5 scoreless innings against the Baltimore Orioles Aug. 18.
  • He has been much sharper on the road this season with a 3.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 64 innings.

RHP Zack Wheeler (10-8, 2.77 ERA) is the projected starter for the Phillies. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 168 2/3 IP.

  • Wheeler has struggled of late with 4 or more earned runs allowed in three of his last four starts, but the underlying skills over the last month (5.7 K/BB, 12.6% swinging-strike rate) have been just fine.
  • He’s been dominant at home all season with a 2.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through 104 innings.

Rays at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-180) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Rays 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

These teams are heading in opposite directions.

The Rays have won seven of their last eight games with 7.38 runs per game in that span, while the Phillies dropped six of their last eight games. The teams have met three times this season (including Yarbrough vs. Wheeler May 29) and the Rays won all three.

Wheeler might have the advantage over Yarbrough at the start, but the Rays’ bullpen has the best ERA in baseball at 3.03, while the Phillies’ 4.60 bullpen ERA ranks 23rd.

Take the RAYS (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Since we’re recommending the underdog to win straight up, PASS on the spread and get more bang for your buck on the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Phillies’ offense has been a mess of late—they’ve averaged just over 3 runs per game across their last seven outings and six of those games have finished Under Wednesday’s projected total of 8.5 runs. Couple that with Wheeler’s run prevention on the mound and take the UNDER 8.5 (-112).

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