Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees (58-40) welcome the Tampa Bay Rays (48-48) to Yankee Stadium Friday to kick off a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 5-4

The Yankees won 2 of 3 games at the Baltimore Orioles before the All-Star break. However, they lost 6-5 as -113 favorites in the series finale Sunday as the Over (9) hit. New York has struggled in July, going just 4-8 over 12 games. It is 25-19 at home this season and 52-46 against the spread (ATS) overall.

The Rays offense struggled heading into the break, but that hasn’t mattered much, as they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games. Tampa Bay won 2 of 3 home games against the Cleveland Guardians in its last series July 12-14 while scoring exactly 2 runs in each outing. It is 21-21 on the road this season, 45-51 ATS overall, and 4-2 ATS over its last 6 games.

Rays at Yankees projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Eflin (5-6, 3.99 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 99 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 home setback to Yankees July 10
  • 2024 away splits: 2-4, 5.37 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 8 HR, 7.3 K/9 in 10 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 3-2, 1.50 ERA (42 IP, 7 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 7 starts, including 0-1 with 0.69 ERA (13 IP, 1 ER) in 2 starts this year

Cole (2-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 23 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 road victory over Orioles July 12
  • 2024 home splits: 0-0, 6.48 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 1 HR, 14.0 K/9 in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Rays (regular season): 4-7, 3.55 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 in 19 starts, including 2-0 with 3.65 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts last season

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Rays at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:58 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Rays +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Yankees -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Rays +1.5 (-146) | Yankees -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Rays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Rays 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Yankees (-172) are strong favorites here, and they are too expensive to take on the moneyline. Considering the Rays’ offensive woes, they aren’t worth taking as plus-money road underdogs.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+122).

In Cole’s last 3 outings, he has started to figure it out. He allowed 8 ER in his 1st 2 starts but has given up a combined 6 ER in his last 2, including just 1 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings. The Yankees have covered in Cole’s last 3 starts.

New York is 3-2 ATS over its last 5 games and 19-22 ATS (which ranks in the top-3rd of the league) as a home favorite. The Rays rank in the bottom half of the league in covering as underdogs at just 24-20 ATS.

Considering those trends, take YANKEES -1.5 (+122).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

Both teams will have solid pitchers open the game. The Yankees have gone Under in 2 of Cole’s last 3 starts and are 2-4-1 O/U in their last 7 games, allowing just 1 run in 3 of their last 5.

The Rays have gone Under in 3 straight games and are 3-9-1 O/U in their last 13. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games and allowed 2 or fewer 3 times over that span.

Given both teams’ recent performances, back UNDER 8 (-105).

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