The Tampa Bay Rays (1-0) continue their season-opening series against the Miami Marlins (0-1) Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Ryan Yarbrough is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. In 2020, Yarbrough went 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 55 2/3 IP and 11 appearances. The Rays lefty is an elite soft-contact inducer (hard contact allowed in 2020 was 25%). In 39 career road games (in a difficult road division), Yarbrough has held opposing bats to a .635 OPS.
RHP Pablo Lopez gets the nod for the Marlins. A year ago he went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 57 1/3 IP over 11 starts. In games not on Sept. 9, Lopez logged a 2.54 ERA (he was tagged for seven runs in 1 2/3 frames that day against the Atlanta Braves). The now-25-year-old logged two starts against the Rays in 2020, one good (2 runs) and one bad (5 runs).
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Rays at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Marlins 4, Rays 3
Money line (ML)
The Rays topped the Marlins 1-0 in Thursday’s lid-lifter. Tampa Bay leaned a bit more into its best bullpen options to seal the win.
Miami was a much stronger club against lefty pitching in 2020, carding a .775 OPS (.673 vs. right-handed pitching). Lopez is a strong breakout candidate for 2021, and these prices should be flipped.
Take the MARLINS (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
A contrarian run-line play fading a top-notch club is an angle with some merit. It may be worth holding out for a better price here, but MIAMI +1.5 (-175) makes for a decent play.
Consider the run line as undercard action with the above ML wager on top.
Over/Under (O/U)
A contrarian Over 7.5 (-110) lean after a 1-0 opener is squelched by the pitching matchup and the pitcher-friendly yard.
PASS.
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