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The Tampa Bay Rays (43-43) and Kansas City Royals (48-40) wrap up a 3-game set at Kauffman Stadium Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 3-2
After winning the opener 5-1, the Rays lost 4-2 as -110 favorites in the 2nd game of the series Wednesday as the Under (8) hit. Tampa Bay is 9-4 in its last 13 and hasn’t lost back-to-back games since June 14-15 at the Atlanta Braves.
RHP Michael Wacha gave up just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 IP for the Royals, who cashed as +102 underdogs. Kansas City has alternated wins and losses over its last 4 games and is 6-3 so far on its current 10-game homestand.
Rays at Royals projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Alec Marsh
Eflin (4-5, 3.92 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, MLB-best 0.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 87 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Friday
- 2024 road stats: 1-4, 5.01 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 2-1, 4.00 ERA (18 IP, 8 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 3 starts, including 1-1 with 8.00 ERA (9 IP, 8 ER) in 2 starts last year
Marsh (6-5, 4.19 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory vs. Cleveland Guardians Friday
- 2024 home stats: 4-1, 3.30 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Rays: 0-1, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 11 K in 1 start, a 6-1 home loss July 15, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rays at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rays at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
The RAYS (-130) have not lost 2 straight games since June 14-15, and that was against a team in the Braves that is much better than Kansas City. Tampa Bay should bounce back after Wednesday’s loss, especially if Eflin can pick up where he left off in Friday’s win (0 R in 6 IP).
BET RAYS (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
The Rays’ last 4 wins have been by 2 or more runs, so I’m not completely against taking the run line in this spot. However, Rays ML is definitely the safer bet, and +125 isn’t a great payout.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in the 1st 2 games of this series and is 14-4-1 in the last 19 for Kansas City. Both pitchers are also coming off impressive outings, with Eflin pitching 6 scoreless innings in his last start Friday, and Marsh giving up just 1 ER last time out against Cleveland.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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