Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (48-47) play the Tampa Bay Rays (59-39) in the third game of their four-game series at Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa Bay won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-9 but needed a 2-run rally in the ninth inning to steal Thursday’s series opener before pummelling the Indians 10-5 Friday.

Season series: Rays lead 5-0.

RHP Drew Rasmussen takes the hill for the Rays. He is 0-1 with a 4.55 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 25 H, 16 BB and 42 K through one start and 22 relief appearances with the Rays and Milwaukee Brewers this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 2 IP with 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Tampa Bay’s 6-1 loss against the Baltimore Orioles Monday.

  • Rasmussen is expected to be used as an opener in a bullpen day as he hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in an outing this season.

RHP J.C. Mejia is Cleveland’s projected starter. He is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across eight starts and three relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K Monday at the Houston Astros.
  • 2021 home stats: 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.59 WHIP and 2.6 KBB through six starts and one relief appearance.

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Rays at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Indians +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (-105) | Indians +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Rays 9, Indians 5

Money line (ML)

“Sharp” money has steamed the RAYS (-160) down to their current price from the -125 opener because Tampa Bay’s bullpen is the best in the majors in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and WAR. It also has the fifth-lowest HR/9.

Also, Mejia is Cleveland’s sixth-most used starting pitcher this season. He likely wouldn’t be included in the rotation if it weren’t for the injuries of starting RHPs Shane Bieber (shoulder) and Aaron Civale (finger).

While Cleveland’s bullpen has been strong this season, Indians relievers were shelled in Friday’s meeting and have been mediocre in the four games since the All-Star break.

I’d BET 1 unit on the RAYS (-160). If your standard unit of wager in MLB is $100 then put that on Tampa Bay’s money line to hopefully earn a $62.50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

I’m going to PASS even though three of Tampa Bay’s five wins against Cleveland were by at least 2 runs. The Rays are 10-13 ATS as road favorites.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 10.5 (-105) for 1 unit because Tampa Bay has played to the Over as a road favorite at the highest rate in the majors (16-5-2 O/U) and Cleveland is 10-6-1 O/U as a home underdog.

Plus, both bullpens are a little overworked so there’s a good chance we’ll be seeing less effective relievers Saturday.

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