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The Boston Red Sox (22-20) welcome the Tampa Bay Rays (21-22) to Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch in the 2nd of the 4-game series is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Red Sox beat the Rays 5-4 in 12 innings Tuesday but failed to cover as a run-line favorite, closing at -120 on the moneyline. SS Romy Gonzalez singled in the winning run in the 12th inning for Boston, which bounced back after a 5-3 loss in the series opener.
Boston is 3-1 over its last 4 yet 4-7 over its last 11. The Red Sox are 19-23 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 10-11 straight up at home.
The Rays have traded off winning and losing over their last 5 games and are 2-4 straight up over their last 6. They are 18-25 ATS on the season. Tampa Bay is 7-10 on the road this season, the 6th-worst away record in MLB.
Rays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Bradley (0-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 1 ER on 4 hits and 2 walks with 7 K’s in his season debut, a 2-0 home loss vs. the New York Yankees Friday.
- 2023 road splits: 2-4, 5.47 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 55 H, 11 HR, 26 BB, 71 K in 11 starts and 2 relief appearances
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-0, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 in 2 starts
Houck (3-4, 2.24 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 52 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-1 home loss against Washington Nationals Friday
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 2.54 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 25 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 24 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Rays (regular season): 0-3, 7.47 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.66 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances
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Rays at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Red Sox -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-194) | Red Sox -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
BET RAYS (+114).
The Rays haven’t put together long winning or losing streaks this season, and they are 13-8 following a loss. Tampa Bay gave Bradley no help in his 1st start, but it allowed just 2 runs to the Yankees in that game. Tampa Bay has won 7 of its last 11.
The Red Sox have lost 2 straight in which Houck has started, and they have allowed 5 runs in both. The Red Sox are just 7-9 straight up as home favorites, which they are here.
Given Tampa Bay’s pitching advantage and Boston’s struggles as a home favorite, back RAYS (+114).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value on the run line, as the Rays are too pricey and the Red Sox are too risky as run-line favorites. Avoid this play, and take the moneyline.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-120).
The Red Sox have gone Under in 7 straight games and are 14-25-3 O/U on the season. They have 6 or fewer runs scored in 5 of their last 7 games. Boston is 2-5-1 O/U in Houck’s 8 starts.
Tampa Bay is 2-5 O/U in its last 7 games. It is 23-19-1 O/U on the season. With Bradley on the mound, the Rays are 0-1 O/U. Given the season-long trends for both teams, back UNDER 8 (-120).
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