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The Tampa Bay Rays (91-57) and Baltimore Orioles (91-55) tussle Friday as they continue their key 4-game AL East series. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (AppleTV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 6-4
Tampa Bay took Thursday’s opener 4-3, and the Rays are now just 1 game behind Baltimore in the AL East. That marks the closest Tampa has been to Baltimore since July 22 which was just a couple days after the Rays had been overtaken by the Orioles for the division lead.
Baltimore has lost 3 straight games. The Birds own a .561 OPS and are just 2-for-21 with runners in scoring position over the 3 setbacks.
Rays at Orioles projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Eflin (14-8, 3.53 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 160 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home win vs. Seattle Mariners Sunday
- 2023 Road stats: 3-4, 3.92 ERA in 62 IP across 11 starts
- Career starts vs. Orioles: 2-2, 3.46 ERA in 26 IP across 4 starts (2018-23)
Flaherty (8-8, 4.98 ERA) is tabbed for his 27th start. He has logged a 1.57 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP for the Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 13-12 win at Boston Red Sox Saturday
- 2023 Home stats: 4-4, 5.54 ERA in 52 IP across 10 starts
- Has never faced the Rays as a starter
- Has been hurt by a .350 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)
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Rays at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+125) | Orioles +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rays at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Orioles 3
Moneyline
There has been some aggregate team lean on the Rays (everything but starting pitching) for several weeks now, so it’s not a big surprise they might be tied for the AL East lead after this one.
Tampa would be a play at -115, but there is some bullpen-fatigue edge on the home side and a bit more to like in Flaherty than what pops on the surface.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Same as above but add more juice and say no that much quicker. PASS.
Over/Under
The Under is 4-1 across the last 5 Tampa-Baltimore games.
Flaherty owns a Boeing 7.16 ERA over his last 6 starts, but that has come alongside some shaky, hard-to-repeat marginal rates that affect run scoring a great deal (.363 BABIP for instance). There are warts to his line to be sure, but Flaherty may be unfairly faded here by some.
Both offenses are a bit too far out over their skis as far as production vs. expected performance. The price here offers good leverage.
BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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