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The Tampa Bay Rays (90-57) and Baltimore Orioles (91-54) tussle in the Thursday night opener of a 4-game series in Charm City. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 6-3
Tampa is continuing a road trip that opened with the club taking 2-of-3 games at the Minnesota Twins to start the week. The Rays have batted .269/.351/.493 (.843 OPS) while going 5-1 over their last 6 games.
Baltimore, which leads Tampa Bay by 2 games in the AL East, won 7 straight games from Sept. 2-9. However, the Orioles have gone just 1-3 since. They are looking to win their first season series against Tampa since 2016.
Rays at Orioles projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Kyle Bradish
Civale (7-3, 2.96 ERA) is making his 21st start this season. He has registered a 1.12 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 112 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K in 7-5 home win vs. Seattle Mariners Saturday
- 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 2.03 ERA in 53 1/3 IP across 10 starts
- Career starts vs. Orioles: 2-0, 7.36 ERA in 11 IP over 2 starts
Bradish (11-6, 3.03 ERA) is tabbed for his 27th start. He has logged a 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 145 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 9 K in 11-2 win at Bost Red Sox Friday
- 2023 Home stats: 4-3, 2.26 ERA in 59 2/3 IP across 10 starts
- Career starts vs. Rays: 1-2, 6.53 ERA in 20 2/3 IP across 4 starts
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Rays at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Rays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Orioles -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-175) | Orioles -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Rays at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Orioles 4
Moneyline
Civale’s surface numbers have fallen off of late but perhaps unfairly with some unkind rates around the margins.
Both bullpens have had good numbers over the last month or so. For the Rays, that performance exhibits some real growth, and the Tampa ‘pen looks to be a strength heading down the stretch. Baltimore relievers have clocked a 2.95 ERA since Aug. 1, but that figure has been artificially tamped down by a .269 batting average on balls in play and a kind rate of fly balls leaving the park.
The Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 road-series openers and they are the lean with plus-money odds. However, Bradish is a tough customer, especially at Camden Yards where he owns a 2.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best price here: BET TAMPA BAY (+118). Consider some partial-unit outlay unless the tag reaches +122.
Run line/Against the spread
Attractive pricing on the Rays here. Some bettors may want to consider a RAYS +1.5 (-165) play if they cannot get the visitors at +120 on the moneyline.
Over/Under
Tip of the cap to the market here. There is some reason to project this one getting well past the combined starter and bullpen ERAs, but bettors pounced but the profit air is out of the balloon.
PASS.
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