The Tampa Bay Rays (54-38) meet the Atlanta Braves (45-46) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match of the set as these teams split the first two meetings with the Rays winning the first game 7-6 in extra innings and Atlanta shutting out Tampa Bay 9-0 Saturday.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
LHP Rich Hill is on the mound for the Rays. Hill is 6-4 with a 3.74 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 18 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Toronto Blue Jays last Sunday.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .232/.295/.286 slash line, 14/5 K/BB, 0 HR and 5 RBIs.
LHP Drew Smyly is Atlanta’s projected starter. Smyly is 7-3 with a 4.48 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 14-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 3 BB and 4 K July 7 at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 2021 home splits: 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in six starts.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Rays at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 5, Rays 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the BRAVES (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because we have split action in the betting market with the “sharps” slightly favoring Atlanta while a slight majority of the “public” is behind Tampa Bay.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, more than 50% of the cash wagered is on the Braves to win whereas nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Rays and typically it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting.
Furthermore, Tampa’s lineup scores more than a full run less per game facing left-handed pitching and ranks in the bottom 10 of advanced hitting categories vs. lefties such as wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate.
That being said, Tampa’s bullpen is much more reliable than Atlanta’s hence the BET on BRAVES (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS instead of the full game money line.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the Braves -0.5 (+115) First 5 Innings run line is a “sharp” price because Atlanta is actually an underdog on the full-game run line due to its weak bullpen.
Moreover, when Hill gets the start five of Tampa’s eight losses are by a single run and the Rays have the fourth-highest cover rate on the road (29-18 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
We already discussed how poor Tampa’s lineup hits lefties but a similar case can be made for Atlanta’s lineup and both lineups will be easier for the pitching to navigate since this interleague game is being played in an NL park without a DH.
Not only that, but the Under has been getting hit with “sharp” money—hence it being juiced to -115—despite a vast majority of the situational trends suggesting Rays-Braves could be a higher scoring affair.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for a half unit.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]